No real change
The updates today to the FIFA rankings are minimal in Europe. This is because only Cyprus, Scotland and the Faroe Islands have played since the last update, although Italy and Serbia's game has now been taken into account. There are a lot of friendly matches and two Euro 2012 qualifying matches tonight, which will be considered on December 15th.
Biggest risers: Albania are up seven to 58th. They have not lost any places since August, when I first started tracking things. Nobody else has gained more than three places in the world rankings. However, Greece rise one place to 11th. Italy gain two places.
Biggest fallers: Wales fall seven to 111th. They're by far the worst of the British teams. Moldova and Macedonia each lose six places, and Cyprus lose five despite their draw with Jordan yesterday. Russia, who were briefly in the top 10, fall to thirteenth as Egypt get the number 10 slot. Serbia lose 3 places.
Showing posts with label football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label football. Show all posts
16/10/2010
Africa!
What's with the Central African Republic? Two months ago they were on 0 points in the FIFA/Coca-Cola World Rankings. A draw with Morocco shot them up 30 places to 172nd in the world, and now they look to be shooting higher when the new ranks come out on Wednesday. Just as the Euro 2012 qualifiers were taking place, so were the Africa Cup of Nations 2012 qualifiers. Algeria, who qualified for South Africa 2010, were playing CAR and lost!
In total, CAR (or, to use FIFA's lettering, CTA) got 1051.35 points from that match. Don't forget that FIFA take an average over the matches for the whole year to calculate points, so that's not how many points they will go up in the table, but since they've only played two games over the last year, the total of this plus their draw against Morocco will be divided by five. In other words, that's 260.78 points for 2010.
This win puts CAR at the top of their group for the Africa Cup of Nations 2012 qualifiers.
And that ends the interesting non-F1, non-Euro 2012 world news.
In total, CAR (or, to use FIFA's lettering, CTA) got 1051.35 points from that match. Don't forget that FIFA take an average over the matches for the whole year to calculate points, so that's not how many points they will go up in the table, but since they've only played two games over the last year, the total of this plus their draw against Morocco will be divided by five. In other words, that's 260.78 points for 2010.
This win puts CAR at the top of their group for the Africa Cup of Nations 2012 qualifiers.
And that ends the interesting non-F1, non-Euro 2012 world news.
13/10/2010
Euro 2012 Qualification: Italy vs Serbia
There are worse fans than the English
Italy vs Serbia was a fiasco, with Serbian fans causing havoc by throwing flares on the pitch and lighting fireworks. The Scottish referee Chris Thomson had to abandon the match after just six minutes, and that was after a 40 minute delay before kickoff.
Here's how the FIFA rules go about abandoning matches:
Under the section about 'authority of the referee' and his 'powers and duties':
“The referee: … stops, suspends or abandons the match because of outside interference of any kind”
FIFA rules about abandoned matches: “An abandoned match is replayed unless the competition rules provide otherwise.”
UEFA rules about abandoned matches in the Euro Cup: “Si un match est arrêté avant la fin de la durée réglementaire de la rencontre ou lors d’une éventuelle prolongation en raison de l'état du terrain ou pour d’autres raisons, il doit être rejoué intégralement le lendemain ou à une autre date convenue par l’association organisatrice et l’association visiteuse, sous réserve de l’approbation de l’Administration de l’UEFA. Un accord correspondant doit intervenir dans les deux heures qui suivent la décision de l’arbitre d’annuler le match. En cas de désaccord, l’Administration de l’UEFA fixe la date et l’heure du coup d’envoi du match. Sa décision est définitive.”
As best I can translate it in my poor French (and with Google's help): “If a match is stopped before the end of normal time or any extra time during the meeting due to ground conditions or for any other reason, it must be replayed in full the next day or on another convenient date for the organising [home team] association and the visiting [away team] association, subject to approval by the UEFA administration. An agreement must occur within the two hours that follow the arbiter's [in this case, the referee's] decision to cancel the match. In case of disagreement, the UEFA administration will fix the date and time of the match's kickoff. Their decision is final.”
From the official UEFA website: “UEFA now awaits the receipt of the official UEFA delegate's match report before deciding whether to open a disciplinary case.”
The match could be reorganised, or Italy could simply be awarded a 3-0 win by UEFA.
Italy vs Serbia was a fiasco, with Serbian fans causing havoc by throwing flares on the pitch and lighting fireworks. The Scottish referee Chris Thomson had to abandon the match after just six minutes, and that was after a 40 minute delay before kickoff.
Here's how the FIFA rules go about abandoning matches:
Under the section about 'authority of the referee' and his 'powers and duties':
“The referee: … stops, suspends or abandons the match because of outside interference of any kind”
FIFA rules about abandoned matches: “An abandoned match is replayed unless the competition rules provide otherwise.”
UEFA rules about abandoned matches in the Euro Cup: “Si un match est arrêté avant la fin de la durée réglementaire de la rencontre ou lors d’une éventuelle prolongation en raison de l'état du terrain ou pour d’autres raisons, il doit être rejoué intégralement le lendemain ou à une autre date convenue par l’association organisatrice et l’association visiteuse, sous réserve de l’approbation de l’Administration de l’UEFA. Un accord correspondant doit intervenir dans les deux heures qui suivent la décision de l’arbitre d’annuler le match. En cas de désaccord, l’Administration de l’UEFA fixe la date et l’heure du coup d’envoi du match. Sa décision est définitive.”
As best I can translate it in my poor French (and with Google's help): “If a match is stopped before the end of normal time or any extra time during the meeting due to ground conditions or for any other reason, it must be replayed in full the next day or on another convenient date for the organising [home team] association and the visiting [away team] association, subject to approval by the UEFA administration. An agreement must occur within the two hours that follow the arbiter's [in this case, the referee's] decision to cancel the match. In case of disagreement, the UEFA administration will fix the date and time of the match's kickoff. Their decision is final.”
From the official UEFA website: “UEFA now awaits the receipt of the official UEFA delegate's match report before deciding whether to open a disciplinary case.”
The match could be reorganised, or Italy could simply be awarded a 3-0 win by UEFA.
08/10/2010
Euro 2012 Qualification: 8/10/2010 results
UEFA have drastically updated their MatchCentre to display the matches far more sensibly. I won't go into the changes, but let's just say it is much simpler to use and has much less scrolling! It also now displays team statistics, including results and averages of previous games between the two sides.
My complaints would be first that it is still not updated very well as the match goes on. It can take some time to get the 'live' results appearing, and corrections often have to be made so you can't trust what it says. [Portugal's own goal was originally credited to one of the Danish players]
Secondly, in the statistics section there are red (home) and blue (away) bars to show how many goals, cards, shots etc. each team has had. But while some of these are positive, others are negative. It can therefore be hard to see which team is dominating a game – if a team has a good number of shots but a low number of cards, it looks like an even game, but a good number of shots and high number of cards looks like a dominated game.
Most Unexpected Result: Armenia 3 – 1 Slovakia. Surprising because Armenia are 89 points lower in rank than Slovakia, who were in the World Cup!
Most Expected Result: Hungary 8 – 0 San Marino. Because San Marino are... one of the worst international football teams in the world.
Most Embarrassing Result: Serbia 1 – 3 Estonia. Serbia helped Estonia to their victory with an own goal in extra time at the end of the second half. This was the first of two own goals scored today.
Most Promising Result: Northern Ireland 0 – 0 Italy. Holding Italy to a scoreless draw is fantastic for any team. Northern Ireland would have no shame in losing to Italy, but drawing shows that their victory against Slovenia was not a fluke result. More importantly, Northern Ireland are the only team in the British Isles who didn't lose tonight! (England weren't playing; Ireland lost to Russia; Wales lost to Bulgaria; Scotland lost to the Czech Republic)
Most Unusual Result: Portugal 3 – 1 Denmark. Why Unusual? Portugal scored all the goals! At least they managed to win despite this.
Cleanest Game: Spain 3 – 1 Lithuania; Moldova 0 – 1 Netherlands; Northern Ireland 0 – 0 Italy. No cards of any kind. Spain continue the way they were going in the World Cup before the final (they were the only team to get no cards in the group stages). However, it's a very clean game for the Dutch. And Northern Ireland earn more kudos for not getting any cards against Italy, who have been known in the past to dive.
Dirtiest Game: Wales 0 – 1 Bulgaria. In this awful game one Welsh player – defender Chris Gunter (Nottingham Forest) – got a straight red card. His teammate Sam Ricketts (Bolton) got a yellow, as did four Bulgarian players including another Bolton player.
My complaints would be first that it is still not updated very well as the match goes on. It can take some time to get the 'live' results appearing, and corrections often have to be made so you can't trust what it says. [Portugal's own goal was originally credited to one of the Danish players]
Secondly, in the statistics section there are red (home) and blue (away) bars to show how many goals, cards, shots etc. each team has had. But while some of these are positive, others are negative. It can therefore be hard to see which team is dominating a game – if a team has a good number of shots but a low number of cards, it looks like an even game, but a good number of shots and high number of cards looks like a dominated game.
Most Unexpected Result: Armenia 3 – 1 Slovakia. Surprising because Armenia are 89 points lower in rank than Slovakia, who were in the World Cup!
Most Expected Result: Hungary 8 – 0 San Marino. Because San Marino are... one of the worst international football teams in the world.
Most Embarrassing Result: Serbia 1 – 3 Estonia. Serbia helped Estonia to their victory with an own goal in extra time at the end of the second half. This was the first of two own goals scored today.
Most Promising Result: Northern Ireland 0 – 0 Italy. Holding Italy to a scoreless draw is fantastic for any team. Northern Ireland would have no shame in losing to Italy, but drawing shows that their victory against Slovenia was not a fluke result. More importantly, Northern Ireland are the only team in the British Isles who didn't lose tonight! (England weren't playing; Ireland lost to Russia; Wales lost to Bulgaria; Scotland lost to the Czech Republic)
Most Unusual Result: Portugal 3 – 1 Denmark. Why Unusual? Portugal scored all the goals! At least they managed to win despite this.
Cleanest Game: Spain 3 – 1 Lithuania; Moldova 0 – 1 Netherlands; Northern Ireland 0 – 0 Italy. No cards of any kind. Spain continue the way they were going in the World Cup before the final (they were the only team to get no cards in the group stages). However, it's a very clean game for the Dutch. And Northern Ireland earn more kudos for not getting any cards against Italy, who have been known in the past to dive.
Dirtiest Game: Wales 0 – 1 Bulgaria. In this awful game one Welsh player – defender Chris Gunter (Nottingham Forest) – got a straight red card. His teammate Sam Ricketts (Bolton) got a yellow, as did four Bulgarian players including another Bolton player.
07/10/2010
Euro 2012 Qualification: 8/10/2010-12/10/2010 part 2
Here are the predictions and matches for groups F to I.
Group F
This has been one of the more interesting groups, with Georgia forcing unexpected draws. It also features Greece, who are always unpredictable, and Israel, who aren't in UEFA. With Malta, this is probably the most Mediterranean of the 9 groups.
8-9/10/10
Georgia (89) play Malta (150) and Greece (12) play Latvia (68) on the Friday, but for religious reasons Israel (36) play Croatia (11) on the Saturday. Georgia and Greece should win, but Israel-Croatia is worth paying attention to.
12/10/10
Latvia (68) play Georgia (89), and Greece (12) play Israel (36). With their recent performance Georgia could win, and Israel may hold Greece to a draw. Malta and Croatia play on November 17.
Group G
My favourite group, because it features my country England! It also includes Wales, Bulgaria – whose coach has resigned after they lost to Montenegro – and Switzerland. With their good wins in September, I expect England to easily win this group.
8/10/10 [England not playing]
Wales (84) play Bulgaria (54) and Montenegro (41) play Switzerland (21). Both games could go any way, although – and I hate to say this – Wales will probably lose.
12/10/10 [Bulgaria not playing]
Switzerland (21) play Wales (84) and England (6) play Montenegro (41). Switzerland and England are my predictions to win.
Group H
Iceland have done poorly in their games and are by far the worst team in the group, but Cyprus held Portugal to a 4-4 draw that makes things interesting. Denmark and Norway are the two Scandinavian teams. This is very much a Western Europe group.
8/10/10 [Iceland not playing]
Cyprus (43) play Norway (14), and Portugal (8) play Denmark (29). I honestly cannot say who will win, although I expect Portugal win if they can get over their draw.
12/10/10 [Norway not playing]
Denmark (29) play Cyprus (43), and Iceland (100) play Portugal (8). Cyprus might be able to beat Denmark, or it could go the other way. However, Portugal have a chance of an easy win against Iceland.
Group I
Poor old Scotland were demoted despite some reasonable football, to become the UK's third team. And now they have Spain to contend with. But with Liechtenstein, the Czech Republic and Lithuania this should still be an interesting group for them.
8/10/10 [Liechtenstein not playing]
The Czech Republic (37) play Scotland (47) and Spain (1) play Lithuania (42). While Spain should win, Scotland have a challenge I hope they will rise to and at least draw.
12/10/10 [Lithuania not playing]
Liechtenstein (149) play the Czech Republic (37), and Scotland (47) play Spain (1). I forsee a loss for Scotland, and a victory for the Czech Republic.
Group F
This has been one of the more interesting groups, with Georgia forcing unexpected draws. It also features Greece, who are always unpredictable, and Israel, who aren't in UEFA. With Malta, this is probably the most Mediterranean of the 9 groups.
8-9/10/10
Georgia (89) play Malta (150) and Greece (12) play Latvia (68) on the Friday, but for religious reasons Israel (36) play Croatia (11) on the Saturday. Georgia and Greece should win, but Israel-Croatia is worth paying attention to.
12/10/10
Latvia (68) play Georgia (89), and Greece (12) play Israel (36). With their recent performance Georgia could win, and Israel may hold Greece to a draw. Malta and Croatia play on November 17.
Group G
My favourite group, because it features my country England! It also includes Wales, Bulgaria – whose coach has resigned after they lost to Montenegro – and Switzerland. With their good wins in September, I expect England to easily win this group.
8/10/10 [England not playing]
Wales (84) play Bulgaria (54) and Montenegro (41) play Switzerland (21). Both games could go any way, although – and I hate to say this – Wales will probably lose.
12/10/10 [Bulgaria not playing]
Switzerland (21) play Wales (84) and England (6) play Montenegro (41). Switzerland and England are my predictions to win.
Group H
Iceland have done poorly in their games and are by far the worst team in the group, but Cyprus held Portugal to a 4-4 draw that makes things interesting. Denmark and Norway are the two Scandinavian teams. This is very much a Western Europe group.
8/10/10 [Iceland not playing]
Cyprus (43) play Norway (14), and Portugal (8) play Denmark (29). I honestly cannot say who will win, although I expect Portugal win if they can get over their draw.
12/10/10 [Norway not playing]
Denmark (29) play Cyprus (43), and Iceland (100) play Portugal (8). Cyprus might be able to beat Denmark, or it could go the other way. However, Portugal have a chance of an easy win against Iceland.
Group I
Poor old Scotland were demoted despite some reasonable football, to become the UK's third team. And now they have Spain to contend with. But with Liechtenstein, the Czech Republic and Lithuania this should still be an interesting group for them.
8/10/10 [Liechtenstein not playing]
The Czech Republic (37) play Scotland (47) and Spain (1) play Lithuania (42). While Spain should win, Scotland have a challenge I hope they will rise to and at least draw.
12/10/10 [Lithuania not playing]
Liechtenstein (149) play the Czech Republic (37), and Scotland (47) play Spain (1). I forsee a loss for Scotland, and a victory for the Czech Republic.
06/10/2010
Euro 2012 Qualification: 8/10/2010-12/10/2010 part 1
This weekend there are more Euro 2012 games. Here are the match previews for groups A to E.
Group A
This is really a group of two halves: three Western Europe countries with a Christian history, very close together and sharing (in some parts) the same language; and three Euro-Asian countries of an Islamic background
8/10/2010
Kazakhstan (126) play Belgium (62), Austria (61) play Azerbaijan (102) and Germany (3) play Turkey (21). It seems obvious that Belgium, Austria and German should each win their games.
12/10/10
Azerbaijan (102) play Turkey (21), Kazakhstan (126) play Germany (3), and Belgium (62) play Austria (61). While Turkey and Germany are likely to win their games, it's too hard to predict – from the numbers – who will win out of Belgium and Austria.
Group B
This group features Andorra – on their way to 0 points since their last draw was in September 2007 (now worth a mere 2 points) – and 'geographically in Asia' Armenia, as well as World Cup team Slovakia, Ireland, Russia and Macedonia.
8/10/10
Armenia (105) play Slovakia (16), Andorra (202) play Macedonia (71), and Ireland (33) play Russia Slovakia and Macedonia are set to win, but Ireland have a chance against their opponents.
12/10/10
Armenia (105) play Andorra (202), Slovakia (16) play Ireland (33), and Macedonia (71) play Russia (25). Armenia should win their game, and Russia theirs. Ireland have a stronger opponent, but may prove a challenge.
Group C
Here we find Northern Ireland – now the UK's second-best team after Scotland's performance and beating Slovenia. We also have Italy, Serbia and Slovenia, who are ranked similarly by FIFA, and the rather poorer teams of Faroe Islands and Estonia who kicked off the Euro 2012 qualifiers.
8/10/10
Serbia (15) play Estonia (85), Northern Ireland (45) play Italy (13), and Slovenia (16) play the Faroe Islands (138). Serbia, Italy and Slovenia should each win, since Italy have picked themselves up after the World Cup.
12/10/10
Faroe Islands (138) play Northern Ireland (45), Estonia (85) play Slovenia (16) and Italy (13) play Serbia (15). So while it's wins likely for Northern Ireland and Slovenia, Italy have a challenge on their hands.
Group D
A low-morale France are here, but none of the other teams played in the World Cup. Still, after France's last two matches they will struggle.
8-9/10/10
Luxembourg (130) play Belarus (55) and Albania (67) play Bosnia and Herzegovina (59) on the Friday, then France (27) play Romania (46) on the Saturday. While Belarus have an easy win to claim, the Albania-B&H match should be a challenge. Meanwhile, France may well struggle against Romania.
12/10/10
Belarus (55) play Albania (67) and France (27) play Luxembourg (130). It will be disappointing if France fail to win, and the other match will be tricky for either team to win. Bosnia-Herzegovina and Romania are not playing.
Group E
San Marino haven't won any points in a game since they beat Liechtenstein 1-0 in 2004! This group also features a competitive Northern European group of Sweden, Finland and the Netherlands (who came second in the World Cup).
8/10/10
Hungary (51) play San Marino (203), and Moldova (80) play the Netherlands (2). There's no game for Sweden and Finland. So two simple wins for Hungary and the Netherlands.
12/10/10
Finland (64) play Hungary (51), Netherlands (2) play Sweden (32), and San Marino (203) play Moldova (80). I'd expect Netherlands and Moldova to win, but Finland and Hungary have a struggle on their hands.
Group A
This is really a group of two halves: three Western Europe countries with a Christian history, very close together and sharing (in some parts) the same language; and three Euro-Asian countries of an Islamic background
8/10/2010
Kazakhstan (126) play Belgium (62), Austria (61) play Azerbaijan (102) and Germany (3) play Turkey (21). It seems obvious that Belgium, Austria and German should each win their games.
12/10/10
Azerbaijan (102) play Turkey (21), Kazakhstan (126) play Germany (3), and Belgium (62) play Austria (61). While Turkey and Germany are likely to win their games, it's too hard to predict – from the numbers – who will win out of Belgium and Austria.
Group B
This group features Andorra – on their way to 0 points since their last draw was in September 2007 (now worth a mere 2 points) – and 'geographically in Asia' Armenia, as well as World Cup team Slovakia, Ireland, Russia and Macedonia.
8/10/10
Armenia (105) play Slovakia (16), Andorra (202) play Macedonia (71), and Ireland (33) play Russia Slovakia and Macedonia are set to win, but Ireland have a chance against their opponents.
12/10/10
Armenia (105) play Andorra (202), Slovakia (16) play Ireland (33), and Macedonia (71) play Russia (25). Armenia should win their game, and Russia theirs. Ireland have a stronger opponent, but may prove a challenge.
Group C
Here we find Northern Ireland – now the UK's second-best team after Scotland's performance and beating Slovenia. We also have Italy, Serbia and Slovenia, who are ranked similarly by FIFA, and the rather poorer teams of Faroe Islands and Estonia who kicked off the Euro 2012 qualifiers.
8/10/10
Serbia (15) play Estonia (85), Northern Ireland (45) play Italy (13), and Slovenia (16) play the Faroe Islands (138). Serbia, Italy and Slovenia should each win, since Italy have picked themselves up after the World Cup.
12/10/10
Faroe Islands (138) play Northern Ireland (45), Estonia (85) play Slovenia (16) and Italy (13) play Serbia (15). So while it's wins likely for Northern Ireland and Slovenia, Italy have a challenge on their hands.
Group D
A low-morale France are here, but none of the other teams played in the World Cup. Still, after France's last two matches they will struggle.
8-9/10/10
Luxembourg (130) play Belarus (55) and Albania (67) play Bosnia and Herzegovina (59) on the Friday, then France (27) play Romania (46) on the Saturday. While Belarus have an easy win to claim, the Albania-B&H match should be a challenge. Meanwhile, France may well struggle against Romania.
12/10/10
Belarus (55) play Albania (67) and France (27) play Luxembourg (130). It will be disappointing if France fail to win, and the other match will be tricky for either team to win. Bosnia-Herzegovina and Romania are not playing.
Group E
San Marino haven't won any points in a game since they beat Liechtenstein 1-0 in 2004! This group also features a competitive Northern European group of Sweden, Finland and the Netherlands (who came second in the World Cup).
8/10/10
Hungary (51) play San Marino (203), and Moldova (80) play the Netherlands (2). There's no game for Sweden and Finland. So two simple wins for Hungary and the Netherlands.
12/10/10
Finland (64) play Hungary (51), Netherlands (2) play Sweden (32), and San Marino (203) play Moldova (80). I'd expect Netherlands and Moldova to win, but Finland and Hungary have a struggle on their hands.
03/10/2010
Mark Lawrenson Predictions: Episode 7
Depression for Liverpool
Predictions here
There were no Monday matches this week, but I'm still late - sorry!
Correct predictions are in bold.
Mark's winner prediction success: 6/10 (over all seven weeks: 49.9%)
Mark's score prediction success: 3/10 (over all seven weeks: 15.7%)
This is ML's best week yet, with the most correct scores that he's ever had. Unfortunately, however, this hasn't helped Liverpool, who are down at the bottom of the league. They have 31 more games to get themselves back in shape. Also, Fulham and Man Utd are the only teams to have not lost a game this season.
Next weekend: Euro 2012 qualifiers are on Friday/Saturday and Tuesday. Previews and after-match posts to come. Also, it's the Japanese Grand Prix for Formula 1, also known as stupidly early racing (that I might get up for).
Predictions here
There were no Monday matches this week, but I'm still late - sorry!
Correct predictions are in bold.
| Home Team | Away Team | Predicted winner | Predicted score | Actual winner | Actual score |
| Birmingam | Everton | Everton | 0-2 | Everton | 0-2 |
| Stoke | Blackburn | Draw | 1-1 | Stoke | 1-0 |
| Sunderland | Man Utd | Man Utd | 1-2 | Draw | 0-0 |
| Tottenham | Aston Villa | Tottenham | 2-0 | Tottenham | 2-1 |
| West Brom | Bolton | Draw | 1-1 | Draw | 1-1 |
| West Ham | Fulham | West Ham | 2-1 | Draw | 1-1 |
| Wigan | Wolverhampton | Wigan | 2-0 | Wigan | 2-1 |
| Man City | Newcastle | Man City | 2-0 | Man Utd | 2-1 |
| Liverpool | Blackpool | Liverpool | 3-1 | Blackpool | 1-2 |
| Chelsea | Arsenal | Chelsea | 2-0 | Chelsea | 2-0 |
Mark's score prediction success: 3/10 (over all seven weeks: 15.7%)
This is ML's best week yet, with the most correct scores that he's ever had. Unfortunately, however, this hasn't helped Liverpool, who are down at the bottom of the league. They have 31 more games to get themselves back in shape. Also, Fulham and Man Utd are the only teams to have not lost a game this season.
Next weekend: Euro 2012 qualifiers are on Friday/Saturday and Tuesday. Previews and after-match posts to come. Also, it's the Japanese Grand Prix for Formula 1, also known as stupidly early racing (that I might get up for).
27/09/2010
Mark Lawrenson Predictions: Episode 6
Mark Lawrenson did such a bad job of predicting the scores this week that I'm not going to bother posting them. He only got one correct winner, and no correct scores.
This, admittedly, is probably because Arsenal and Chelsea both lost, when they've been having good runs so far this season.
This, admittedly, is probably because Arsenal and Chelsea both lost, when they've been having good runs so far this season.
22/09/2010
Mark Lawrenson Predictions: Episode 5
Chelsea are awesome :(
Predictions here
There were no Monday matches this week, but I'm still late - sorry!
Correct predictions are in bold.
Mark's winner prediction success rate: 4/10
Mark's score prediction success rate: 2/10
Chelsea continue their winning stream. Mark Lawrenson is doing badly. Next weekend - F1 from Singapore and Premier League.
Predictions here
There were no Monday matches this week, but I'm still late - sorry!
Correct predictions are in bold.
| Home Team | Away Team | Predicted winner | Predicted score | Actual winner | Actual score |
| Stoke | West Ham | West Ham | 2-0 | Draw | 1-1 |
| Aston Villa | Bolton | Aston Villa | 2-0 | Draw | 1-1 |
| Blackburn | Fulham | Fulham | 2-1 | Draw | 1-1 |
| Everton | Newcastle | Everton | 3-1 | Newcastle | 0-1 |
| Tottenham | Wolverhampton | Tottenham | 2-0 | Tottenham | 3-1 |
| West Brom | Birmingam | Draw | 1-1 | West Brom | 3-1 |
| Sunderland | Arsenal | Draw | 1-1 | Draw | 1-1 |
| Man Utd | Liverpool | Draw | 0-0 | Man Utd | 3-2 |
| Wigan | Man City | Man City | 0-2 | Man City | 0-2 |
| Chelsea | Blackpool | Chelsea | 3-0 | Chelsea | 4-0 |
Mark's score prediction success rate: 2/10
Chelsea continue their winning stream. Mark Lawrenson is doing badly. Next weekend - F1 from Singapore and Premier League.
17/09/2010
Mark Lawrenson Predictions: Episode 4
Prediction vs Reality
Predictions here
I am a horrendously late blogger this week. My excuse is that it's my first week of a new university term, so I've been busy.
Correct predictions are in bold.
Mark's winner prediction success rate: 5/10
Mark's score prediction success rate: 2/10
Mark Lawrenson didn't do as well predicting winners today, but he's doing okay. As the year progresses, I'm expecting that he'll improve too. He has a 48% winner success rate overall, and a 15% score success rate.
Predictions here
I am a horrendously late blogger this week. My excuse is that it's my first week of a new university term, so I've been busy.
Correct predictions are in bold.
| Home Team | Away Team | Predicted winner | Predicted score | Actual winner | Actual score |
| Everton | Man Utd | Draw | 1-1 | Draw | 3-3 |
| Arsenal | Bolton | Arsenal | 3-1 | Arsenal | 4-1 |
| Fulham | Wolverhampton | Fulham | 2-1 | Fulham | 2-1 |
| Man City | Blackburn | Man City | 2-0 | Draw | 1-1 |
| Newcastle | Blackpool | Newcastle | 2-1 | Blackpool | 0-2 |
| West Brom | Tottenham | Draw | 1-1 | Draw | 1-1 |
| West Ham | Chelsea | Draw | 1-1 | Chelsea | 2-0 |
| Wigan | Sunderland | Sunderland | 1-2 | Draw | 1-1 |
| Birmingham | Liverpool | Liverpool | 0-2 | Draw | 0-0 |
| Stoke | Aston Villa | Stoke | 2-0 | Stoke | 2-1 |
Mark's score prediction success rate: 2/10
Mark Lawrenson didn't do as well predicting winners today, but he's doing okay. As the year progresses, I'm expecting that he'll improve too. He has a 48% winner success rate overall, and a 15% score success rate.
13/09/2010
Euro 2012 Qualification: Groups G, H, I September
Before I forget, here's the last three groups:
Group G
England won both their games (hooray!), and Wales, Bulgaria and Switzerland both lost their only games. Montenegro also won both their games.
So England's points were 1177.5 against Bulgaria, and 1372.5 against Switzerland.
Montenegro's were 870 against Wales, and 1177.5 against Bulgaria.
Obviously Wales, Bulgaria and Switzerland have 0 points.
England lead the group on goal difference, with Bulgaria second. Again by goal difference, Wales are third, with Switzerland fourth and Bulgaria last.
Group H
Group H was full of surprises for one member: Portugal. They only managed a draw and a loss. Norway, however, beat Iceland and Portugal. Iceland also lost to Denmark. Cyprus drew with Portugal.
Portugal got a low 342.5 points from their draw.
Cyprus got 480 in the same game.
Norway had 907.5 points from beating Iceland, and 1440 from beating Portugal.
Denmark also got 907.5 points from their victory over Iceland.
So Norway lead the group with Denmark second, Cyprus third on goal difference, Portugal fourth, and Iceland last.
Group I
Scotland scraped a win over Liechtenstein after previously drawing with Lithuania. Cup holders Spain also beat Liechtenstein, and Lithuania beat the Czech Republic.
So Scotland had 370 points from their draw, and a low 442.5 for beating Liechtenstein.
Spain had their 442.5 over Liechtenstein as well.
Lithuania had 397.5 points from drawing with Scotland, and 1267.5 from beating the Czech Republic.
Liechtenstein and the Czech Republic both got no points.
So Scotland lead their group and Lithuania are second on goal difference. Third are Spain, and last are Liechtenstein and the Czech Rep.
Group G
England won both their games (hooray!), and Wales, Bulgaria and Switzerland both lost their only games. Montenegro also won both their games.
So England's points were 1177.5 against Bulgaria, and 1372.5 against Switzerland.
Montenegro's were 870 against Wales, and 1177.5 against Bulgaria.
Obviously Wales, Bulgaria and Switzerland have 0 points.
England lead the group on goal difference, with Bulgaria second. Again by goal difference, Wales are third, with Switzerland fourth and Bulgaria last.
Group H
Group H was full of surprises for one member: Portugal. They only managed a draw and a loss. Norway, however, beat Iceland and Portugal. Iceland also lost to Denmark. Cyprus drew with Portugal.
Portugal got a low 342.5 points from their draw.
Cyprus got 480 in the same game.
Norway had 907.5 points from beating Iceland, and 1440 from beating Portugal.
Denmark also got 907.5 points from their victory over Iceland.
So Norway lead the group with Denmark second, Cyprus third on goal difference, Portugal fourth, and Iceland last.
Group I
Scotland scraped a win over Liechtenstein after previously drawing with Lithuania. Cup holders Spain also beat Liechtenstein, and Lithuania beat the Czech Republic.
So Scotland had 370 points from their draw, and a low 442.5 for beating Liechtenstein.
Spain had their 442.5 over Liechtenstein as well.
Lithuania had 397.5 points from drawing with Scotland, and 1267.5 from beating the Czech Republic.
Liechtenstein and the Czech Republic both got no points.
So Scotland lead their group and Lithuania are second on goal difference. Third are Spain, and last are Liechtenstein and the Czech Rep.
12/09/2010
Euro 2012 Qualification: Groups E, F September
Group E
The Netherlands won both their games over the weekend, Moldova beat Finland, and Sweden beat Hungary and San Marino – who lost both theirs. Finland and Moldova both lost their second games.
So Netherlands got a low 375 points from beating San Marino, and 1117.5 for beating Finland.
Sweden also got 375 points for beating San Marino, and 1035 for beating Hungary.
Moldova's loss meant they only got 1117.5 points for beating Finland.
Similarly, Hungary got 832.5 points only, for beating Moldova.
San Marino and Finland both got 0 points.
Now, Sweden lead the group on goal difference, with Netherlands second. Moldova are then ahead of Hungary, followed by Finland and San Marino.
Group F
Georgia managed a surprising two draws against much better teams – Greece and Israel. Greece also managed a draw against Croatia, who beat Latvia, and Latvia beat Malta. Israel also beat Malta on the second of September.
Georgia got 470 and 405 points from their respective draws.
Croatia won 1132.5 points from their win, and 470 from their draw.
Israel had 375 points from their win, and 225 from their draw.
Greece's draws got them 225 and 465 points respectively.
Latvia's only points were 375 against Malta.
And Malta got 0 points.
So Croatia lead the group with Israel second, Latvia third, Greece and Georgia in fourth, and Malta last.
The Netherlands won both their games over the weekend, Moldova beat Finland, and Sweden beat Hungary and San Marino – who lost both theirs. Finland and Moldova both lost their second games.
So Netherlands got a low 375 points from beating San Marino, and 1117.5 for beating Finland.
Sweden also got 375 points for beating San Marino, and 1035 for beating Hungary.
Moldova's loss meant they only got 1117.5 points for beating Finland.
Similarly, Hungary got 832.5 points only, for beating Moldova.
San Marino and Finland both got 0 points.
Now, Sweden lead the group on goal difference, with Netherlands second. Moldova are then ahead of Hungary, followed by Finland and San Marino.
Group F
Georgia managed a surprising two draws against much better teams – Greece and Israel. Greece also managed a draw against Croatia, who beat Latvia, and Latvia beat Malta. Israel also beat Malta on the second of September.
Georgia got 470 and 405 points from their respective draws.
Croatia won 1132.5 points from their win, and 470 from their draw.
Israel had 375 points from their win, and 225 from their draw.
Greece's draws got them 225 and 465 points respectively.
Latvia's only points were 375 against Malta.
And Malta got 0 points.
So Croatia lead the group with Israel second, Latvia third, Greece and Georgia in fourth, and Malta last.
11/09/2010
Euro 2012 Qualification: Groups C, D September
Group C
Group C's five games (only two on the Tuesday) showed Italy hadn't been too crushed by the World Cup, as they won both their games. Estonia, having won against the Faroes, lost to Italy. The Faroes lost as well to the 2006 World Cup winners, and also to Serbia. Serbia only managed a draw for their second game against Slovenia, who shockingly lost to Northern Ireland on the Friday (Northern Ireland were the other team not playing on Tuesday).
Northern Ireland got a fantastic 1357.5 points for their win against Slovenia.
Slovenia, therefore, only managed 467.5 points in their draw.
Serbia got 615 points for beating the Faroe Islands, and 452.5 points in their draw.
Italy's earnings were 795 points against Estonia, and 615 against the Faroes.
Estonia and the Faroe Islands got no points from the weekend.
Now, Italy lead the group with Serbia in second, followed by Northern Ireland (who have only played one game), Estonia, Slovenia and the Faroe Islands (lost 3 out of 3 games).
Group D
France started off with a dramatic loss against Belarus, leaving everyone wondering if their terrible World Cup performance was continuing, but managed a last-minute win against Bosnia-Herzegovina. Luxembourg lost both their games: against B-H and Albania respectively. Romania and Albania drew on the Friday, then Romania went on to get a second draw against Belarus.
France got no points for their loss, but 1072.5 points from their win against B-H.
Belarus got a spectacular 1342.5 points for defeating France, and 395 from their draw.
Romania's draws earned them 325 points and 305 points for Albania and Belarus respectively.
Albania's draw earned them 395 points, and their win against Luxembourg got 622.5 points.
Boznia-Herzegovina got 622.5 points from beating Luxembourg, and none from their loss against France.
Luxembourg earned no points at all.
Albania and Belarus lead the group, with B-H and France in third, Romania in fifth, and Luxembourg last.
Group C's five games (only two on the Tuesday) showed Italy hadn't been too crushed by the World Cup, as they won both their games. Estonia, having won against the Faroes, lost to Italy. The Faroes lost as well to the 2006 World Cup winners, and also to Serbia. Serbia only managed a draw for their second game against Slovenia, who shockingly lost to Northern Ireland on the Friday (Northern Ireland were the other team not playing on Tuesday).
Northern Ireland got a fantastic 1357.5 points for their win against Slovenia.
Slovenia, therefore, only managed 467.5 points in their draw.
Serbia got 615 points for beating the Faroe Islands, and 452.5 points in their draw.
Italy's earnings were 795 points against Estonia, and 615 against the Faroes.
Estonia and the Faroe Islands got no points from the weekend.
Now, Italy lead the group with Serbia in second, followed by Northern Ireland (who have only played one game), Estonia, Slovenia and the Faroe Islands (lost 3 out of 3 games).
Group D
France started off with a dramatic loss against Belarus, leaving everyone wondering if their terrible World Cup performance was continuing, but managed a last-minute win against Bosnia-Herzegovina. Luxembourg lost both their games: against B-H and Albania respectively. Romania and Albania drew on the Friday, then Romania went on to get a second draw against Belarus.
France got no points for their loss, but 1072.5 points from their win against B-H.
Belarus got a spectacular 1342.5 points for defeating France, and 395 from their draw.
Romania's draws earned them 325 points and 305 points for Albania and Belarus respectively.
Albania's draw earned them 395 points, and their win against Luxembourg got 622.5 points.
Boznia-Herzegovina got 622.5 points from beating Luxembourg, and none from their loss against France.
Luxembourg earned no points at all.
Albania and Belarus lead the group, with B-H and France in third, Romania in fifth, and Luxembourg last.
07/09/2010
Euro 2012 Qualification: 7/9/2010 Results
Poor-tugal
More surprises today, especially from Portugal and Georgia. France, however, improved and won a match. Here's the top five surprising results:
1. Georgia (110) drew with Israel (38). There's a difference of 72 places in their world rankings, but this is the second time that Georgia have drawn with a good team this weekend.
2. Montenegro (73) beat Bulgaria (43). Perhaps Bulgaria's 4-0 defeat to England was sagging their spirits.
3. Albania (70) beat the Czech Republic (31)!
4. Norway (22) beat Portugal (8). Portugal are supposed to be a world class team, and should easily defeat their opponents in most situations. This is disappointing.
5. Scotland's (41) draw against Liechtenstein (141) was bad, considering the 100-place difference. Should have been a win for the Scots.
In the British Isles, England and the Republic of Ireland both won (no games today for Wales or Northern Ireland), and Scotland continue to be mediocre. Full group summaries to come over the next few days.
Next weekend: Premier League football, and the Italian Grand Prix.
15th September: FIFA update the world rankings!
More surprises today, especially from Portugal and Georgia. France, however, improved and won a match. Here's the top five surprising results:
1. Georgia (110) drew with Israel (38). There's a difference of 72 places in their world rankings, but this is the second time that Georgia have drawn with a good team this weekend.
2. Montenegro (73) beat Bulgaria (43). Perhaps Bulgaria's 4-0 defeat to England was sagging their spirits.
3. Albania (70) beat the Czech Republic (31)!
4. Norway (22) beat Portugal (8). Portugal are supposed to be a world class team, and should easily defeat their opponents in most situations. This is disappointing.
5. Scotland's (41) draw against Liechtenstein (141) was bad, considering the 100-place difference. Should have been a win for the Scots.
In the British Isles, England and the Republic of Ireland both won (no games today for Wales or Northern Ireland), and Scotland continue to be mediocre. Full group summaries to come over the next few days.
Next weekend: Premier League football, and the Italian Grand Prix.
15th September: FIFA update the world rankings!
29/08/2010
Mark Lawrenson Predictions: Episode 3
Prediction vs Reality
Predictions here
Correct predictions are in bold.
Mark's winner prediction success rate: 6/10
Mark's score prediction success rate: 2/10
Mark Lawrenson improved today, getting more than half the winners correct, and two of the scores. Not bad! He has a 47% winner success rate overall, and a 13% score success rate.
Predictions here
Correct predictions are in bold.
| Home Team | Away Team | Predicted winner | Predicted score | Actual winner | Actual score |
| Blackburn | Arsenal | Arsenal | 1-2 | Arsenal | 1-2 |
| Blackpool | Fulham | Draw | 1-1 | Draw | 2-2 |
| Chelsea | Stoke | Chelsea | 3-0 | Chelsea | 2-0 |
| Tottenham | Wigan | Tottenham | 3-0 | Wigan | 0-1 |
| Wolverhampton | Newcastle | Wolverhampton | 2-1 | Draw | 1-1 |
| Man Utd | West Ham | Man Utd | 3-0 | Man Utd | 3-0 |
| Bolton | Birmingham | Bolton | 2-0 | Draw | 2-2 |
| Liverpool | West Brom | Liverpool | 2-0 | Liverpool | 1-0 |
| Sunderland | Man City | Draw | 1-1 | Sunderland | 1-0 |
| Aston Villa | Everton | Villa | 2-1 | Villa | 1-0 |
Mark's score prediction success rate: 2/10
Mark Lawrenson improved today, getting more than half the winners correct, and two of the scores. Not bad! He has a 47% winner success rate overall, and a 13% score success rate.
16/08/2010
Mark Lawrenson Premier League Prediction Results
Prediction vs Reality
Predictions here
Mark Lawrenson is a BBC football pundit who makes weekly predictions on the results of football matches, so he really ought to get these things right. Correct predictions are in bold.
Mark's winner prediction success rate: 4/10
Mark's score prediction success rate: 1/10
My favourite football team in the whole world (Manchester United, are you surprised?) won their game 3 – 0, with a great performance from a long-time player Paul Scholes. Other teams who did well this weekend were Chelsea and Blackpool – who beat Wigan by a great margin and were the surprise win.
Mark Lawrenson so-far has a 10% score prediction success rate, and a 40% winner prediction success rate. While scores are hard to get right, I hope his winner predictions improve.
Next week: more Premier League football.
Predictions here
Mark Lawrenson is a BBC football pundit who makes weekly predictions on the results of football matches, so he really ought to get these things right. Correct predictions are in bold.
| Home Team | Away Team | Predicted winner | Predicted score | Actual winner | Actual score |
| Tottenham Hotspur | Manchester City | Spurs | 2-1 | Draw | 0-0 |
| Aston Villa | West Ham United | Villa | 2-0 | Villa | 3-0 |
| Blackburn Rovers | Everton | Draw | 1-1 | Blackburn | 1-0 |
| Bolton | Fulham | Bolton | 2-1 | Draw | 0-0 |
| Sunderland | Birmingham City | Sunderland | 1-0 | Draw | 2-2 |
| Wigan | Blackpool | Wigan | 2-1 | Blackpool | 0-4 |
| Wolverhampton | Stoke | Draw | 1-1 | Wolves | 2-1 |
| Chelsea | West Bromwich Albion | Chelsea | 3-0 | Chelsea | 6-0 |
| Liverpool | Arsenal | Draw | 1-1 | Draw | 1-1 |
| Manchester United | Newcastle | Man Utd | 2-0 | Man Utd | 3-0 |
Mark's score prediction success rate: 1/10
My favourite football team in the whole world (Manchester United, are you surprised?) won their game 3 – 0, with a great performance from a long-time player Paul Scholes. Other teams who did well this weekend were Chelsea and Blackpool – who beat Wigan by a great margin and were the surprise win.
Mark Lawrenson so-far has a 10% score prediction success rate, and a 40% winner prediction success rate. While scores are hard to get right, I hope his winner predictions improve.
Next week: more Premier League football.
15/07/2010
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Rankings July 2010
The rankings have been adjusted, and Spain are the best football team in the World. Now that you know how it's all worked out, let's look at how the World Cup has affected the international standings of the teams. There've been some big movers – up and down. Surprisingly, England have maintained their good position, but that's probably thanks to several other teams losing out – and their great qualifiers for the cup.
The fastest risers
The top three World Cup teams to rise in the rankings are:
The fastest risers
The top three World Cup teams to rise in the rankings are:
- New Zealand. They rose 24 places from 78 to 54. They are, in fact, the most improved team worldwide since May.
- South Africa. Since France had such a good world ranking (9) their defeat of the team shot them up 17 places from 83 to 66, although they are still the second-worst team in the competition (ahead of North Korea).
- Paraguay. Escaping from the group stages and beating Italy lifts them 15 places from 31 to a comfortable 16.
- Cameroon. The Africans failed to live up to expectations by losing badly. They dropped a massive 21 places from 19 to 40.
- France. Unsurprisingly, the World Cup finalists from 2006 lost a lot of points from their defeat by South Africa. They dropped 12 places from 9 to 21.
- Nigeria. They tried, but they still fell from 21 to 30.
- Italy only dropped six places, from 5 to 11.
- England rose a place, from 8 to 7.
- North Korea went up two places, from 105 to 103.
- Portugal dropped 5 places from 3 to 8, probably caused by other teams rising rather than their falling (although North Korea's terrible ranking wouldn't have given them many points from that game)
World Ranking Calculation
The World Cup is over, and the world rankings have been readjusted as of yesterday (14th July). Unsurprisingly, Spain are top of the rankings with 1883 points. But how are the points calculated? FIFA has a simple formula based on several factors:
1 – Whether the match was won or drawn (M. The usual values apply – 3, 1, or 0. If the match is won in penalties, the winning team gets 2 points, and the losing team gets 1.
2 – The importance of the match (I)
Friendly: 1.0 points
World cup/continental qualifier: 2.5 points
Continental finals (eg: Euro) or FIFA confederations cup: 3.0 points
World Cup finals: 4.0 points
3 – The strength of the opponent (T)
Calculated by the following formula: [200 – position of opponent]/100 taken from the most recent FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking.
Any team ranked below 150th gets an automatic rating of 0.5
4 – The continental confederation factor of the opposing team(C)
UEFA: 1.00
CONMEBOL: 0.98
CONCACAF: 0.85
AFC: 0.85
CAF: 0.85
OFC: 0.85
Then the final points are calculated as P = M*I*T*C*100
The maximum possible points from a World Cup match is 2,400.
Let's look at the World Cup final to show how this works.
Spain beat Netherlands outside of penalties, so for Spain, M=3. For Netherlands, it's equal to 0 so they get no points from the final.
The importance of the match is I=4.
The strength of Spain's opponent (Netherlands) = [200 – 4]/100 = T=1.96
And there's a continental confederation factor of C=1.00, as both teams are in Europe.
So in total, Spain's points from the World Cup final are:
P = 3*4*1.96*1*100 = 2352
That's only 48 points from the most you can achieve in a game!
Obviously, the actual FIFA ranking isn't calculated only from the last game a team played. If that were the case, Netherlands wouldn't have any points! Instead, and I'm not clear exactly how this works, the matches over the past four years are taken into account. Games in the last year are worth 100% of their points, 50% for those 1-2 years ago, 30% for those 2-3 years ago, and 20% for those 3-4 years ago.
(Source: Fifa.com This is a PDF so make sure you have Adobe Acrobat reader. It's free, so I'm not making them any money by telling you this.)
1 – Whether the match was won or drawn (M. The usual values apply – 3, 1, or 0. If the match is won in penalties, the winning team gets 2 points, and the losing team gets 1.
2 – The importance of the match (I)
Friendly: 1.0 points
World cup/continental qualifier: 2.5 points
Continental finals (eg: Euro) or FIFA confederations cup: 3.0 points
World Cup finals: 4.0 points
3 – The strength of the opponent (T)
Calculated by the following formula: [200 – position of opponent]/100 taken from the most recent FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking.
Any team ranked below 150th gets an automatic rating of 0.5
4 – The continental confederation factor of the opposing team(C)
UEFA: 1.00
CONMEBOL: 0.98
CONCACAF: 0.85
AFC: 0.85
CAF: 0.85
OFC: 0.85
Then the final points are calculated as P = M*I*T*C*100
The maximum possible points from a World Cup match is 2,400.
Let's look at the World Cup final to show how this works.
Spain beat Netherlands outside of penalties, so for Spain, M=3. For Netherlands, it's equal to 0 so they get no points from the final.
The importance of the match is I=4.
The strength of Spain's opponent (Netherlands) = [200 – 4]/100 = T=1.96
And there's a continental confederation factor of C=1.00, as both teams are in Europe.
So in total, Spain's points from the World Cup final are:
That's only 48 points from the most you can achieve in a game!
Obviously, the actual FIFA ranking isn't calculated only from the last game a team played. If that were the case, Netherlands wouldn't have any points! Instead, and I'm not clear exactly how this works, the matches over the past four years are taken into account. Games in the last year are worth 100% of their points, 50% for those 1-2 years ago, 30% for those 2-3 years ago, and 20% for those 3-4 years ago.
(Source: Fifa.com This is a PDF so make sure you have Adobe Acrobat reader. It's free, so I'm not making them any money by telling you this.)
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