Now we know:
Russia will host the 2018 World Cup, and Qatar will host the 2022 World Cup. If I make it to 2022, that will be 12 years of this blog and I'll probably be out of touch - everyone will have moved on from blogging.
England, naturally, are disappointed. Still, we do get the Olympics in 2012 - which I hope to be volunteering at - so we're not completely bereft of sport. But as a country we are so able to host the competition, with our fantastic stadiums! In the last world cup, England had a greater proportion of players in our leagues than any other country - including Spain and Germany, who have fantastic leagues too.
Other countries that missed out are Japan, South Korea, the USA, Australia (all 2022), Spain/Portugal and Netherlands/Belgium (2018 - joint bids). It will be interesting to see how these countries handle the cup. Qatar should do well, but Russia... could be interesting.
No international football over the next months for Europe, but FIFA will be updating the rankings on December 15th.
Showing posts with label World Cup. Show all posts
Showing posts with label World Cup. Show all posts
02/12/2010
15/07/2010
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Rankings July 2010
The rankings have been adjusted, and Spain are the best football team in the World. Now that you know how it's all worked out, let's look at how the World Cup has affected the international standings of the teams. There've been some big movers – up and down. Surprisingly, England have maintained their good position, but that's probably thanks to several other teams losing out – and their great qualifiers for the cup.
The fastest risers
The top three World Cup teams to rise in the rankings are:
The fastest risers
The top three World Cup teams to rise in the rankings are:
- New Zealand. They rose 24 places from 78 to 54. They are, in fact, the most improved team worldwide since May.
- South Africa. Since France had such a good world ranking (9) their defeat of the team shot them up 17 places from 83 to 66, although they are still the second-worst team in the competition (ahead of North Korea).
- Paraguay. Escaping from the group stages and beating Italy lifts them 15 places from 31 to a comfortable 16.
- Cameroon. The Africans failed to live up to expectations by losing badly. They dropped a massive 21 places from 19 to 40.
- France. Unsurprisingly, the World Cup finalists from 2006 lost a lot of points from their defeat by South Africa. They dropped 12 places from 9 to 21.
- Nigeria. They tried, but they still fell from 21 to 30.
- Italy only dropped six places, from 5 to 11.
- England rose a place, from 8 to 7.
- North Korea went up two places, from 105 to 103.
- Portugal dropped 5 places from 3 to 8, probably caused by other teams rising rather than their falling (although North Korea's terrible ranking wouldn't have given them many points from that game)
World Ranking Calculation
The World Cup is over, and the world rankings have been readjusted as of yesterday (14th July). Unsurprisingly, Spain are top of the rankings with 1883 points. But how are the points calculated? FIFA has a simple formula based on several factors:
1 – Whether the match was won or drawn (M. The usual values apply – 3, 1, or 0. If the match is won in penalties, the winning team gets 2 points, and the losing team gets 1.
2 – The importance of the match (I)
Friendly: 1.0 points
World cup/continental qualifier: 2.5 points
Continental finals (eg: Euro) or FIFA confederations cup: 3.0 points
World Cup finals: 4.0 points
3 – The strength of the opponent (T)
Calculated by the following formula: [200 – position of opponent]/100 taken from the most recent FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking.
Any team ranked below 150th gets an automatic rating of 0.5
4 – The continental confederation factor of the opposing team(C)
UEFA: 1.00
CONMEBOL: 0.98
CONCACAF: 0.85
AFC: 0.85
CAF: 0.85
OFC: 0.85
Then the final points are calculated as P = M*I*T*C*100
The maximum possible points from a World Cup match is 2,400.
Let's look at the World Cup final to show how this works.
Spain beat Netherlands outside of penalties, so for Spain, M=3. For Netherlands, it's equal to 0 so they get no points from the final.
The importance of the match is I=4.
The strength of Spain's opponent (Netherlands) = [200 – 4]/100 = T=1.96
And there's a continental confederation factor of C=1.00, as both teams are in Europe.
So in total, Spain's points from the World Cup final are:
P = 3*4*1.96*1*100 = 2352
That's only 48 points from the most you can achieve in a game!
Obviously, the actual FIFA ranking isn't calculated only from the last game a team played. If that were the case, Netherlands wouldn't have any points! Instead, and I'm not clear exactly how this works, the matches over the past four years are taken into account. Games in the last year are worth 100% of their points, 50% for those 1-2 years ago, 30% for those 2-3 years ago, and 20% for those 3-4 years ago.
(Source: Fifa.com This is a PDF so make sure you have Adobe Acrobat reader. It's free, so I'm not making them any money by telling you this.)
1 – Whether the match was won or drawn (M. The usual values apply – 3, 1, or 0. If the match is won in penalties, the winning team gets 2 points, and the losing team gets 1.
2 – The importance of the match (I)
Friendly: 1.0 points
World cup/continental qualifier: 2.5 points
Continental finals (eg: Euro) or FIFA confederations cup: 3.0 points
World Cup finals: 4.0 points
3 – The strength of the opponent (T)
Calculated by the following formula: [200 – position of opponent]/100 taken from the most recent FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking.
Any team ranked below 150th gets an automatic rating of 0.5
4 – The continental confederation factor of the opposing team(C)
UEFA: 1.00
CONMEBOL: 0.98
CONCACAF: 0.85
AFC: 0.85
CAF: 0.85
OFC: 0.85
Then the final points are calculated as P = M*I*T*C*100
The maximum possible points from a World Cup match is 2,400.
Let's look at the World Cup final to show how this works.
Spain beat Netherlands outside of penalties, so for Spain, M=3. For Netherlands, it's equal to 0 so they get no points from the final.
The importance of the match is I=4.
The strength of Spain's opponent (Netherlands) = [200 – 4]/100 = T=1.96
And there's a continental confederation factor of C=1.00, as both teams are in Europe.
So in total, Spain's points from the World Cup final are:
That's only 48 points from the most you can achieve in a game!
Obviously, the actual FIFA ranking isn't calculated only from the last game a team played. If that were the case, Netherlands wouldn't have any points! Instead, and I'm not clear exactly how this works, the matches over the past four years are taken into account. Games in the last year are worth 100% of their points, 50% for those 1-2 years ago, 30% for those 2-3 years ago, and 20% for those 3-4 years ago.
(Source: Fifa.com This is a PDF so make sure you have Adobe Acrobat reader. It's free, so I'm not making them any money by telling you this.)
11/07/2010
The World Cup Final
Too many yellows
Howard Webb was a very lenient referee, but even so he gave out fourteen yellow cards to thirteen players in today's World Cup Final. That's nearly half the players (including substitutes) and probably more than one Dutchman should have been sent off.
But Spain won. So they now have two competitions to defend - Euro and World. I was backing them since England went out (you can check this blog) so I'm glad I was right.
More to follow.
Howard Webb was a very lenient referee, but even so he gave out fourteen yellow cards to thirteen players in today's World Cup Final. That's nearly half the players (including substitutes) and probably more than one Dutchman should have been sent off.
But Spain won. So they now have two competitions to defend - Euro and World. I was backing them since England went out (you can check this blog) so I'm glad I was right.
More to follow.
07/07/2010
Day Twenty-seven preview: 7/7/2010
Sorry for the lateness!
Today's the anniversary of the London bombings five years ago, when several terrorists tried to cause chaos in Britain's capital. It came the day after London won the right to host the 2012 Olympics: two days next to each other but with completely different feelings.
As for why this is late: I just got my copy of the Sims 3: Ambitions expansion pack and was trying it out. Good: you get to take over your sim's working life. Bad: laundry! I give it 4 out of 5.
Today's match, which is about to start (aaah!) is Germany vs Spain. This is a close one! Yesterday's match also turned out close as Uruguay played well, but Netherlands eventually won. Here's the stats for today:
1 – FIFA/Coca-Cola World Rankings: Germany are 6th, Spain are 2nd.
2 – Previous matches: of the 20 games, Germany have won 8, drawn 6 and lost 6. Too close to call.
3 – 1994-2006 World Cup ability: Germany have always made the quarter-finals at least, coming second in 2002, and third in 2006. Spain made it to the final 16 in 2006, the quarter-finals in 2002 and 1994, and didn't escape the group stages in 1998.
4 – 1992-2008 Euro Cup ability: Germany won in 1992, and were runners up in 1996 and 2008, but only made the group stages in 2000 and 2004. But Spain won in 2008, although they didn't qualify in 1992, and made the quarter-finals in 1996 and 2000, but only the group stages in 2004. For having beaten Germany in the 2008 final, Spain win here.
5 – 2020 Group stages: Germany and Spain both have 2-0-1 records.
6 – Odds: (as of 4/7/2010 at bet365.com) Spain are 15-8, Germany 2-1.
The teams are so close, it's impossible to guess from the stats who will win.
Today's the anniversary of the London bombings five years ago, when several terrorists tried to cause chaos in Britain's capital. It came the day after London won the right to host the 2012 Olympics: two days next to each other but with completely different feelings.
As for why this is late: I just got my copy of the Sims 3: Ambitions expansion pack and was trying it out. Good: you get to take over your sim's working life. Bad: laundry! I give it 4 out of 5.
Today's match, which is about to start (aaah!) is Germany vs Spain. This is a close one! Yesterday's match also turned out close as Uruguay played well, but Netherlands eventually won. Here's the stats for today:
1 – FIFA/Coca-Cola World Rankings: Germany are 6th, Spain are 2nd.
2 – Previous matches: of the 20 games, Germany have won 8, drawn 6 and lost 6. Too close to call.
3 – 1994-2006 World Cup ability: Germany have always made the quarter-finals at least, coming second in 2002, and third in 2006. Spain made it to the final 16 in 2006, the quarter-finals in 2002 and 1994, and didn't escape the group stages in 1998.
4 – 1992-2008 Euro Cup ability: Germany won in 1992, and were runners up in 1996 and 2008, but only made the group stages in 2000 and 2004. But Spain won in 2008, although they didn't qualify in 1992, and made the quarter-finals in 1996 and 2000, but only the group stages in 2004. For having beaten Germany in the 2008 final, Spain win here.
5 – 2020 Group stages: Germany and Spain both have 2-0-1 records.
6 – Odds: (as of 4/7/2010 at bet365.com) Spain are 15-8, Germany 2-1.
The teams are so close, it's impossible to guess from the stats who will win.
06/07/2010
Day Twenty-six preview: 6/7/2010
Semi Final One: Netherlands vs Uruguay
1- FIFA/Coca-Cola World Rankings: Netherlands are 4th, Uruguay are 16th and the worst-ranked team left in the competition.
2 – Previous matches: Only three. One draw, and each team has won one.
3 – 1994-2006 World Cup ability: Netherlands failed to qualify in 2002, but made the final 16 in 2006, the quarter-finals in 1994, and came third in 1998. Uruguay only qualified in 2002, and didn't make it past the group stages.
4 – 2010 Group Stages: Netherlands have a 3-0-0 record, Uruguay a 2-1-0 record.
5 – Odds: (as of 4/7/2010 at bet365.com) Netherlands are 21-10, Uruguay 10-1.
So with Uruguay the outsiders, and all the stats against them, Netherlands have every chance of winning this game and getting into the final. My prediction is for the Brazil-beating team to win!
1- FIFA/Coca-Cola World Rankings: Netherlands are 4th, Uruguay are 16th and the worst-ranked team left in the competition.
2 – Previous matches: Only three. One draw, and each team has won one.
3 – 1994-2006 World Cup ability: Netherlands failed to qualify in 2002, but made the final 16 in 2006, the quarter-finals in 1994, and came third in 1998. Uruguay only qualified in 2002, and didn't make it past the group stages.
4 – 2010 Group Stages: Netherlands have a 3-0-0 record, Uruguay a 2-1-0 record.
5 – Odds: (as of 4/7/2010 at bet365.com) Netherlands are 21-10, Uruguay 10-1.
So with Uruguay the outsiders, and all the stats against them, Netherlands have every chance of winning this game and getting into the final. My prediction is for the Brazil-beating team to win!
Semi-Finals: Golden Boot Competition
There are four teams left in the competition, including the one with the top goalscorer. So we only need to look at the players in the top four teams to ask ourselves: who will win the Adidas golden boot? Let's look at who the goalscorers are, and what the odds are from bet365.com:
David Villa (Spain): 5 goals. 1-2 odds. You'd lose money on this guy!
Thomas Müller (Germany): 4 goal. 18-1 odds. Remember that he's not playing in the next game!
Miroslav Klose (Germany): 3 goals. 7-2.
Diego Forlan (Uruguay): 3 goals. 22-1.
Wesley Sneidjer (Netherlands): 3 goals. 10-1.
Luis Suarez (Uruguay): 3 goals. He hasn't scored for a while, but he's had a lot of chances! 80-1.
Lukas Podolski (Germany): 2 goals. 80-1.
Other scorers (who would have to score a lot to win): Cacau (Germany), Kyut (Netherlands), Pereira (Uruguay), Ozil (Germany), Van Persie (Netherlands), Huntelaar (Netherlands), Iniesta (Spain), Robben (Netherlands), Freidrich (Germany).
David Villa (Spain): 5 goals. 1-2 odds. You'd lose money on this guy!
Thomas Müller (Germany): 4 goal. 18-1 odds. Remember that he's not playing in the next game!
Miroslav Klose (Germany): 3 goals. 7-2.
Diego Forlan (Uruguay): 3 goals. 22-1.
Wesley Sneidjer (Netherlands): 3 goals. 10-1.
Luis Suarez (Uruguay): 3 goals. He hasn't scored for a while, but he's had a lot of chances! 80-1.
Lukas Podolski (Germany): 2 goals. 80-1.
Other scorers (who would have to score a lot to win): Cacau (Germany), Kyut (Netherlands), Pereira (Uruguay), Ozil (Germany), Van Persie (Netherlands), Huntelaar (Netherlands), Iniesta (Spain), Robben (Netherlands), Freidrich (Germany).
05/07/2010
Semi-Finals: The Players
Let's take a look at the teams remaining in the competition. Most of them have players who play all over the world, except for Germany, whose players all work in their home nation.
In descending order, here are the most popular countries to play in for World Cup finalists:
Germany – 28 players The whole German team plus five Dutchmen.
Spain – 24 players Most of the Spanish team plus one Dutchman and three Uruguayans.
Netherlands – 11 players Nine Dutchmen and two Uruguayans.
England – 8 players Three Spaniards and five Dutchmen.
Italy – 6 players Four Uruguayans and two Dutchmen.
Portugal and Chile – 3 players each All Uruguayans.
Uruguay – 2 players Two Uruguayans.
Argentina, Brazil, Columbia, France, Scotland, Sweden, Turkey – 1 player each Apart from one Dutchman (Scotland), all Uruguayans.
This shows the immense popularity of the European leagues. The first three countries are all finalists, but Uruguay come far down. All of these leagues are either European or South American – the dominance of the sport in these countries is obvious, not just here, but also in the three Europeans and one South American in the final.
In descending order, here are the most popular countries to play in for World Cup finalists:
Germany – 28 players The whole German team plus five Dutchmen.
Spain – 24 players Most of the Spanish team plus one Dutchman and three Uruguayans.
Netherlands – 11 players Nine Dutchmen and two Uruguayans.
England – 8 players Three Spaniards and five Dutchmen.
Italy – 6 players Four Uruguayans and two Dutchmen.
Portugal and Chile – 3 players each All Uruguayans.
Uruguay – 2 players Two Uruguayans.
Argentina, Brazil, Columbia, France, Scotland, Sweden, Turkey – 1 player each Apart from one Dutchman (Scotland), all Uruguayans.
This shows the immense popularity of the European leagues. The first three countries are all finalists, but Uruguay come far down. All of these leagues are either European or South American – the dominance of the sport in these countries is obvious, not just here, but also in the three Europeans and one South American in the final.
04/07/2010
Quarter-Finals Summary: 4/7/2010
Sorry that I've completely failed to post the last few days. It's been busy here. Anyway, Brazil were defeated by the Netherlands, and Uruguay beat Ghana in penalties after Gyan failed to get an in-game penalty at the end that would have put his team through. Oops!
Yesterday, there was an awesome victory for Germany over Argentina, and Spain beat Paraguay. So now the European dominance returns, with three of the four finalists in this continent. Two of the four haven't won a World Cup before, so it's quite possible that we could see a new country winning the cup. Personally, I'm with Spain.
Despite being a low-scoring team (in their five matches they have only had 6 goals), Spain also has the tournament's top goalscorer so far – David Villa, who has scored five of those goals. That's an average of one per game.
Germany's Mueller is also a top scorer with four goals, despite his young age (19). However, he will miss out on their next match – against Spain – because of the yellow card he got in yesterday's game. For all the other players, there is now a yellow card amnesty. This is so that people who get a yellow card in their semi-final game won't miss out on the final/third-place playoff. It's probably also because otherwise, so many people would have one yellow card that the teams might struggle to get enough people together for the final!
Anyway, no more stats on goals per game/cards per game. I'm a little behind on working these things out. I might have them later in the week.
Yesterday, there was an awesome victory for Germany over Argentina, and Spain beat Paraguay. So now the European dominance returns, with three of the four finalists in this continent. Two of the four haven't won a World Cup before, so it's quite possible that we could see a new country winning the cup. Personally, I'm with Spain.
Despite being a low-scoring team (in their five matches they have only had 6 goals), Spain also has the tournament's top goalscorer so far – David Villa, who has scored five of those goals. That's an average of one per game.
Germany's Mueller is also a top scorer with four goals, despite his young age (19). However, he will miss out on their next match – against Spain – because of the yellow card he got in yesterday's game. For all the other players, there is now a yellow card amnesty. This is so that people who get a yellow card in their semi-final game won't miss out on the final/third-place playoff. It's probably also because otherwise, so many people would have one yellow card that the teams might struggle to get enough people together for the final!
Anyway, no more stats on goals per game/cards per game. I'm a little behind on working these things out. I might have them later in the week.
01/07/2010
The Quarter Finals: Continental Drift
Now we're up to the final eight teams in the competition. They come from three continents, but how does this compare to previous competitions? We were only ever going to get three European teams through, as a twist of fate meant they ended up playing each other instead of nations from other continents.
The perceived European dominance of football has been severely dented this year – only three sides made it from here, and most of the teams come from South America. In previous years, there was a European dominance, with maybe a couple of teams from South America. Even in 2002, Europe had more representation, and the other teams came from a wide spread of continents.
There has never been a World Cup winner outside of Europe or South America, and it looks like that will continue this year. Only Paraguay of the South American teams remaining has not won a cup, but only Germany from the European sides has done so. So it is possible that we may get a new World Cup winner this year – I'm supporting Spain.
| Continent | 1998 | 2002 | 2006 | 2010 |
| Africa | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Asia | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Australasia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Europe | 6 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| North/Central America0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| South America | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
The perceived European dominance of football has been severely dented this year – only three sides made it from here, and most of the teams come from South America. In previous years, there was a European dominance, with maybe a couple of teams from South America. Even in 2002, Europe had more representation, and the other teams came from a wide spread of continents.
There has never been a World Cup winner outside of Europe or South America, and it looks like that will continue this year. Only Paraguay of the South American teams remaining has not won a cup, but only Germany from the European sides has done so. So it is possible that we may get a new World Cup winner this year – I'm supporting Spain.
The Quarter Finals: Odds
Eight teams have been eliminated from the competition, and eight remain. Obviously, the bookies have now had to revise their odds. In comparison to last time, the odds have changed a bit. The change (+ if you get more back, - if you get less back) is shown after the odds. Let's take a look at the teams. As before, the odds are bet365.com, Ladbrookes, William Hill (10.00am 1/7/2010):
1-Brazil. Brazil are, unsurprisingly, still top. They easily took care of Chile. They're up against Netherlands/Holland next, who are also a good side. (12-5, 9-4, 5-2 -)
2-Spain. Viva la Espana! They managed to beat Portugal, and now face Paraguay. Not too hard for the Euro Champions. (11-4, 3-1, 11-4 -)
4-Netherlands. Now the third-best in the competition, but they face Brazil next. Can they do it? (7-1, 7-1, 7-1 +)
6-Germany. Germany easily beat a terrible England team. They play Argentina next, who are another fantastic, England-beating side. (7-1, 6-1, 13-2 -)
7-Argentina. And Argentina are just below Germany in the rankings. Both countries have won cups before, so there's pressure at home for more. (4-1, 7-2, 9-2 -)
16-Uruguay. They face Ghana next, and have done well so far in the competition. They are the third of four South American sides still in the competition! (14-1, 14-1, 16-1 -)
31-Paraguay. Paraguay face Spain. They're a long way down, but can David beat Goliath this time? (40-1, 40-1, 50-1 +)
32-Ghana. The last African nation left. They have a nation upholding them, but they're playing Uruguay. (33-1, 33-1, 40-1 -)
The biggest changes were with Ghana (decreasing) and Paraguay (increasing). Paraguay have taken Slovakia's place as outsiders.
1-Brazil. Brazil are, unsurprisingly, still top. They easily took care of Chile. They're up against Netherlands/Holland next, who are also a good side. (12-5, 9-4, 5-2 -)
2-Spain. Viva la Espana! They managed to beat Portugal, and now face Paraguay. Not too hard for the Euro Champions. (11-4, 3-1, 11-4 -)
4-Netherlands. Now the third-best in the competition, but they face Brazil next. Can they do it? (7-1, 7-1, 7-1 +)
6-Germany. Germany easily beat a terrible England team. They play Argentina next, who are another fantastic, England-beating side. (7-1, 6-1, 13-2 -)
7-Argentina. And Argentina are just below Germany in the rankings. Both countries have won cups before, so there's pressure at home for more. (4-1, 7-2, 9-2 -)
16-Uruguay. They face Ghana next, and have done well so far in the competition. They are the third of four South American sides still in the competition! (14-1, 14-1, 16-1 -)
31-Paraguay. Paraguay face Spain. They're a long way down, but can David beat Goliath this time? (40-1, 40-1, 50-1 +)
32-Ghana. The last African nation left. They have a nation upholding them, but they're playing Uruguay. (33-1, 33-1, 40-1 -)
The biggest changes were with Ghana (decreasing) and Paraguay (increasing). Paraguay have taken Slovakia's place as outsiders.
Day Twenty-two preview: 2/6/2010
It's time for the first two quarter-final matches. Brazil vs Netherlands are first, and then Uruguay vs Ghana. Let's compare the teams.
Brazil vs Netherlands
Two strong teams here. Brazil are first in the world, Netherlands are fourth. It will be a close game, but Brazil just edge this one out.
In their nine previous matches, Brazil have won three, Netherlands have won two, and four have been drawn. I'd say this one's a tie.
As for previous World Cup ability, Brazil won in 1998 which gives them the point. Some Brazillian players who were in that game are still on the team now!
Finally, group stage performance. Brazil have a 2-1-0 record, but Netherlands have a 3-0-0 record. So the final point goes to Netherlands.
This means it's a close match, with Brazil having a slight advantage.
Uruguay vs Ghana
Uruguay and Ghana are some of the weaker teams in the competition. Uruguay are 16th in the world, and Ghana are 32nd. That's a difference of 16 places. So Uruguay win this point.
In their only previous game, it came out as a draw, so this one's also a tie.
In the last four World Cups, Uruguay only qualified in 2002, when they went out in the group stages. Ghana qualified for their first World Cup in 2006, but made it to the final sixteen. This point goes to the Africans.
As for group stage performance, Uruguay have a 2-1-0 record, while Ghana are 1-1-1. So Uruguay get the final point.
Once again, the stats say it could be close.
My predictions: Netherlands and Uruguay. I would love Ghana to get through, and be the best African nation of all time, but I don't think they will win. As for Brazil/Netherlands, I think the Dutchmen will edge it out of desperation.
Brazil vs Netherlands
Two strong teams here. Brazil are first in the world, Netherlands are fourth. It will be a close game, but Brazil just edge this one out.
In their nine previous matches, Brazil have won three, Netherlands have won two, and four have been drawn. I'd say this one's a tie.
As for previous World Cup ability, Brazil won in 1998 which gives them the point. Some Brazillian players who were in that game are still on the team now!
Finally, group stage performance. Brazil have a 2-1-0 record, but Netherlands have a 3-0-0 record. So the final point goes to Netherlands.
This means it's a close match, with Brazil having a slight advantage.
Uruguay vs Ghana
Uruguay and Ghana are some of the weaker teams in the competition. Uruguay are 16th in the world, and Ghana are 32nd. That's a difference of 16 places. So Uruguay win this point.
In their only previous game, it came out as a draw, so this one's also a tie.
In the last four World Cups, Uruguay only qualified in 2002, when they went out in the group stages. Ghana qualified for their first World Cup in 2006, but made it to the final sixteen. This point goes to the Africans.
As for group stage performance, Uruguay have a 2-1-0 record, while Ghana are 1-1-1. So Uruguay get the final point.
Once again, the stats say it could be close.
My predictions: Netherlands and Uruguay. I would love Ghana to get through, and be the best African nation of all time, but I don't think they will win. As for Brazil/Netherlands, I think the Dutchmen will edge it out of desperation.
30/06/2010
Day Nineteen: 29/6/2010
Penalties prove me wrong, but Spain win!
After a rather disappointing game ending in 0-0 after extra time between Paraguay and Japan, we finally saw our first penalty shoot out of the World Cup. After one of the Japanese players hit the crossbar, Paraguay were able to complete their penalties and make it through to face an Iberian side.
Meanwhile, Spain received their first card of the tournament, destroying their clean record. But it was worse for Portugal, who saw a player sent off. Although they won't continue in the tournament, a sending-off means that the player will have to miss his country's next international game. Spain won deservedly, going 1-0 up in the second half thanks to another goal from Villa. He's one of the top scorers this competition, along with Slovakia's Vittek and Argentina's Higuain.
Spain also broke Portugal's clean sheet for the tournament, and they are still the cleanest-playing team, with only one card.
There are no more games until July 2nd, so over the next few days when I'm not busy, there'll be a few stats posts about the cup coming out.
Goals per game: Mean – 2.19, Median – 2.5, Mode – 2, Range – 7
Cards per game: Mean – 3.91, Median – 5, Mode – 5, Range - 10
After a rather disappointing game ending in 0-0 after extra time between Paraguay and Japan, we finally saw our first penalty shoot out of the World Cup. After one of the Japanese players hit the crossbar, Paraguay were able to complete their penalties and make it through to face an Iberian side.
Meanwhile, Spain received their first card of the tournament, destroying their clean record. But it was worse for Portugal, who saw a player sent off. Although they won't continue in the tournament, a sending-off means that the player will have to miss his country's next international game. Spain won deservedly, going 1-0 up in the second half thanks to another goal from Villa. He's one of the top scorers this competition, along with Slovakia's Vittek and Argentina's Higuain.
Spain also broke Portugal's clean sheet for the tournament, and they are still the cleanest-playing team, with only one card.
There are no more games until July 2nd, so over the next few days when I'm not busy, there'll be a few stats posts about the cup coming out.
Goals per game: Mean – 2.19, Median – 2.5, Mode – 2, Range – 7
Cards per game: Mean – 3.91, Median – 5, Mode – 5, Range - 10
29/06/2010
Day Nineteen preview: 29/6/2010
Today we have the final two games of the last 16. There's an Iberian battle of epic proportions, and the craziest country in the world take on Paraguay.
Paraguay vs Japan
In terms of ranking, Paraguay are 31st in the FIFA/Coca-Cola rankings, and Japan are 45th. Point one to Paraguay.
The teams have faced each other seven times, drawing five of those times, and Paraguay winning the other two. Point two to Paraguay.
Japan have failed to make it to the 1994 World Cup, and made it to the final 16 on home turf in 2002. Otherwise they have only faced the group stages. Paraguay also failed to qualify for the 1994 World Cup, and have otherwise had three final 16 knockouts, and one group stage knockout. Point three to Paraguay.
In this World Cup, Japan have a 2-0-1 group stage record, while Paraguay have a 1-2-0 record. Point four to Japan (for two wins against one).
So Paraguay are winners by the stats. But it's close, especially as the teams are both low-ranked.
Spain vs Portugal
Spain are ranked 2nd in the world. Portugal are third. Point one to Spain.
In their 33 matches, Spain have won 15, drawn 13 and only lost 3. Point two to Spain.
In the World Cups from 1994-2006, Spain have made it to two quarter-finals, one final-16s and one group stage. Portugal did not even qualify for 1994 or 1998, went out in the group stages once, and came fourth in 2006. So point three to Spain.
In the Euro Cups from 1992-2008, Portugal made it to the final once, the semi-final once, and the quarter-finals twice (but did not qualify in 1992). Spain were champions in 2008, but otherwise have had two quarter-finals and one group stage (also failing in 1992). Point four to Portugal.
Just by this World Cup, Spain have a 2-0-1 record to Portugal's 1-2-0, which gives point five to Spain.
Spain have the advantage, especially in recent years (winning Euro 2008 when Portugal went out in the quarter-finals), so they are likely to win.
Paraguay vs Japan
In terms of ranking, Paraguay are 31st in the FIFA/Coca-Cola rankings, and Japan are 45th. Point one to Paraguay.
The teams have faced each other seven times, drawing five of those times, and Paraguay winning the other two. Point two to Paraguay.
Japan have failed to make it to the 1994 World Cup, and made it to the final 16 on home turf in 2002. Otherwise they have only faced the group stages. Paraguay also failed to qualify for the 1994 World Cup, and have otherwise had three final 16 knockouts, and one group stage knockout. Point three to Paraguay.
In this World Cup, Japan have a 2-0-1 group stage record, while Paraguay have a 1-2-0 record. Point four to Japan (for two wins against one).
So Paraguay are winners by the stats. But it's close, especially as the teams are both low-ranked.
Spain vs Portugal
Spain are ranked 2nd in the world. Portugal are third. Point one to Spain.
In their 33 matches, Spain have won 15, drawn 13 and only lost 3. Point two to Spain.
In the World Cups from 1994-2006, Spain have made it to two quarter-finals, one final-16s and one group stage. Portugal did not even qualify for 1994 or 1998, went out in the group stages once, and came fourth in 2006. So point three to Spain.
In the Euro Cups from 1992-2008, Portugal made it to the final once, the semi-final once, and the quarter-finals twice (but did not qualify in 1992). Spain were champions in 2008, but otherwise have had two quarter-finals and one group stage (also failing in 1992). Point four to Portugal.
Just by this World Cup, Spain have a 2-0-1 record to Portugal's 1-2-0, which gives point five to Spain.
Spain have the advantage, especially in recent years (winning Euro 2008 when Portugal went out in the quarter-finals), so they are likely to win.
28/06/2010
Day Eighteen: 28/6/2010 (again)
Brazil and Netherlands up to standard
Is there any surprise today? Just as yesterday, the teams live up to expectations as Netherlands beat Slovakia 2-1 (Slovakia's final goal came from a penalty), and Brazil beat Chile. Slovakia's goalscorer Vittek now has 4 goals, which matches Argentina's Higuain's amount. But with Slovakia out, Higuain just has to score once to go top.
Goals per game: Mean – 2.28, Median – 2, Mode – 2, Range - 7
Cards per game: Mean – 3.94, Median – 4, Mode – 5, Range – 10
Predictions for tomorrow: Japan to beat Paraguay, Spain to beat Portugal.
Is there any surprise today? Just as yesterday, the teams live up to expectations as Netherlands beat Slovakia 2-1 (Slovakia's final goal came from a penalty), and Brazil beat Chile. Slovakia's goalscorer Vittek now has 4 goals, which matches Argentina's Higuain's amount. But with Slovakia out, Higuain just has to score once to go top.
Goals per game: Mean – 2.28, Median – 2, Mode – 2, Range - 7
Cards per game: Mean – 3.94, Median – 4, Mode – 5, Range – 10
Predictions for tomorrow: Japan to beat Paraguay, Spain to beat Portugal.
Day Eighteen: 28/6/2010
Note: I'm graduating tomorrow from university so I may have trouble posting on time with family around, but I'll try!
Netherlands vs Slovakia, Brazil vs Chile
Really, do I need to give the statistics for these games? I will anyway, but just looking at the teams gives you the answers as to which side seems dominant.
Netherlands vs Slovakia, incidentally, is the second of three Europe-on-Europe games in the knockout stages. The other teams from around the world will not be playing European teams again until the next round. At least we know for sure, three European sides will make it to the quarter-finals.
Netherlands are ranked 4th, and Slovakia are ranked 34th. This is a 30-place difference! So point one to Netherlands.
Their only game against Slovakia resulted in a draw, so no points given.
Since this is Slovakia's first World Cup, the Netherlands win point three automatically.
And in terms of this cup, Netherlands have a 3-0-0 record, while Slovakia have a 1-1-1 record. Point four to Netherlands.
So the stats say Netherlands will win.
Brazil vs Chile is South America on South America. Brazil have the reputation, but Chile are like a second division side taking on the Premier League champions - going for it with all they've got!
Brazil are ranked first. This gives them point one without even looking at Chile, who are ranked 18th.
In the competitive record, these teams have met 71 times. Chile have won 8, drawn 13 and lost 50, with 57 goals for and 159 goals against! Point two to Brazil.
From 1994-2010, Brazil have qualified for every World Cup and even won it! Chile have only qualified twice - being banned in 1994, and making the final 16 in 1998. So point three to Brazil.
And finally, in this World Cup, Brazil have a 2-1-0 record in the group stages, while Chile have a 2-0-1 record. Point four to Brazil.
All the same, I'd like to see the little guys win for a change.
Netherlands vs Slovakia, Brazil vs Chile
Really, do I need to give the statistics for these games? I will anyway, but just looking at the teams gives you the answers as to which side seems dominant.
Netherlands vs Slovakia, incidentally, is the second of three Europe-on-Europe games in the knockout stages. The other teams from around the world will not be playing European teams again until the next round. At least we know for sure, three European sides will make it to the quarter-finals.
Netherlands are ranked 4th, and Slovakia are ranked 34th. This is a 30-place difference! So point one to Netherlands.
Their only game against Slovakia resulted in a draw, so no points given.
Since this is Slovakia's first World Cup, the Netherlands win point three automatically.
And in terms of this cup, Netherlands have a 3-0-0 record, while Slovakia have a 1-1-1 record. Point four to Netherlands.
So the stats say Netherlands will win.
Brazil vs Chile is South America on South America. Brazil have the reputation, but Chile are like a second division side taking on the Premier League champions - going for it with all they've got!
Brazil are ranked first. This gives them point one without even looking at Chile, who are ranked 18th.
In the competitive record, these teams have met 71 times. Chile have won 8, drawn 13 and lost 50, with 57 goals for and 159 goals against! Point two to Brazil.
From 1994-2010, Brazil have qualified for every World Cup and even won it! Chile have only qualified twice - being banned in 1994, and making the final 16 in 1998. So point three to Brazil.
And finally, in this World Cup, Brazil have a 2-1-0 record in the group stages, while Chile have a 2-0-1 record. Point four to Brazil.
All the same, I'd like to see the little guys win for a change.
27/06/2010
Day Seventeen: 27/6/2010
The stats prove true
But let's hope not for the entire knockout rounds. Germany beat England after one of the England goals was disallowed despite being over the line. More calls have gone out for Sepp Blatter to change FIFA's stance on technology – he was the trending topic on Twitter, along with the ref of that game. Admittedly, Germany were the better team. The last Italian has now left the competition with a little more dignity than the others! FA – we'd like to keep Fabio please. He's nice.
Argentina also played fantastically against Mexico, who were no match for Maradona's team. Higuain got his fourth goal of the tournament, which once again puts him the top goalscorer. If Argentina keep up their performance, they could win the cup, and Higuain could well get the Adidas golden boot.
There has been an incredible increase in the number of goals scored per game. Just in the knockout stages, the average has been 3.75 goals per game! There's clearly a great desire to win, and sometimes the competition just hasn't met up to expectations (England).
Nor have the referees. Linesman Mauricio Espinosa was the one who declared Lampard's goal to not be a goal, but the referee Jorge Larrionda has now made two mistakes in this cup, having also not called a handball in the Australia-Serbia game that would have given Serbia a penalty and maybe put them through.
The only Englishman left in the competition is Howard WEBB, the referee, who has had a good performance so far. I hope he gets the final, but if Germany gets through then that probably won't be such a good idea.
Goals per game: Mean – 2.25, Median – 2, Mode – 2, Range – 7
Cards per game: Mean – 3.9, Median – 4, Mode – 5, Range – 10
Predictions for tomorrow: Netherlands have the experience, but Slovakia beat Italy. It's hard to call, but I'm going to risk it and go for the Slovaks. Well, I have to get one wrong! Brazil are definitely going to beat Chile, despite the fact that one of the Chilleans is called Isla.
But let's hope not for the entire knockout rounds. Germany beat England after one of the England goals was disallowed despite being over the line. More calls have gone out for Sepp Blatter to change FIFA's stance on technology – he was the trending topic on Twitter, along with the ref of that game. Admittedly, Germany were the better team. The last Italian has now left the competition with a little more dignity than the others! FA – we'd like to keep Fabio please. He's nice.
Argentina also played fantastically against Mexico, who were no match for Maradona's team. Higuain got his fourth goal of the tournament, which once again puts him the top goalscorer. If Argentina keep up their performance, they could win the cup, and Higuain could well get the Adidas golden boot.
There has been an incredible increase in the number of goals scored per game. Just in the knockout stages, the average has been 3.75 goals per game! There's clearly a great desire to win, and sometimes the competition just hasn't met up to expectations (England).
Nor have the referees. Linesman Mauricio Espinosa was the one who declared Lampard's goal to not be a goal, but the referee Jorge Larrionda has now made two mistakes in this cup, having also not called a handball in the Australia-Serbia game that would have given Serbia a penalty and maybe put them through.
The only Englishman left in the competition is Howard WEBB, the referee, who has had a good performance so far. I hope he gets the final, but if Germany gets through then that probably won't be such a good idea.
Goals per game: Mean – 2.25, Median – 2, Mode – 2, Range – 7
Cards per game: Mean – 3.9, Median – 4, Mode – 5, Range – 10
Predictions for tomorrow: Netherlands have the experience, but Slovakia beat Italy. It's hard to call, but I'm going to risk it and go for the Slovaks. Well, I have to get one wrong! Brazil are definitely going to beat Chile, despite the fact that one of the Chilleans is called Isla.
Day Seventeen preview: 27/6/2010
Germany vs England, Argentina vs Mexico
I hate to do this, but I will take a hard look at the facts.
Germany are 6, England are 8 in the FIFA/Coca-Cola World Rankings. It's a small difference, but gives point one to Germany.
In their most recent confrontations – 2000-2010 only – there have been five games played. England won three, Germany two. Overall, England have won 12 games in normal time, Germans 10 with 5 draws, of which Germany won two because they were knockout games, so in normal play England also have the advantage. So point two goes to England.
From 1994-2006, Germany have always gone to the quarter finals, came second in 2002, and third in 2006. England missed out on the 1994 World Cup, and have otherwise done reasonably but not brilliantly. Point three to Germany.
In the European Championship from 1992-2008, Germany were champions in 1996 (with England as hosts), and were runners-up twice, but only made the first round in 2000 and 2004. England made the semi-final in 1996, and the quarter-final in 2004, but failed to qualify last time. Point four to Germany.
And in terms of group-stage performance, Germany have a 2-0-1 record, while England have a 1-2-0 record. Therefore they are on equal standings in this cup.
So the statistics say Germany will probably win, but England have determination on their side, and a longer starvation from victories. We also have an older, more experienced squad, with some of Germany's best players not in this competition.
For Argentina and Mexico, Argentina are ranked 7th while Mexico are 17th. This puts point one to Argentina.
In their confrontations they have played 26 games, with Argentina winning 11, drawing 11 and only losing 4. This puts point two easily to Argentina.
As well as having two World Cup victories, Argentina are also led by Diego Maradona, who won one of those cups. But in more recent years they have not made it past the quarter-finals. Mexico have not made it past the final 16, and only reached the quarter-finals when they hosted the competition. Point three to Argentina.
And in this World Cup, Argentina have a group stage record of 3 wins, while Mexico are on 1-1-1. Point four solidly to Argentina.
So Argentina have the best chance of winning!
I hate to do this, but I will take a hard look at the facts.
Germany are 6, England are 8 in the FIFA/Coca-Cola World Rankings. It's a small difference, but gives point one to Germany.
In their most recent confrontations – 2000-2010 only – there have been five games played. England won three, Germany two. Overall, England have won 12 games in normal time, Germans 10 with 5 draws, of which Germany won two because they were knockout games, so in normal play England also have the advantage. So point two goes to England.
From 1994-2006, Germany have always gone to the quarter finals, came second in 2002, and third in 2006. England missed out on the 1994 World Cup, and have otherwise done reasonably but not brilliantly. Point three to Germany.
In the European Championship from 1992-2008, Germany were champions in 1996 (with England as hosts), and were runners-up twice, but only made the first round in 2000 and 2004. England made the semi-final in 1996, and the quarter-final in 2004, but failed to qualify last time. Point four to Germany.
And in terms of group-stage performance, Germany have a 2-0-1 record, while England have a 1-2-0 record. Therefore they are on equal standings in this cup.
So the statistics say Germany will probably win, but England have determination on their side, and a longer starvation from victories. We also have an older, more experienced squad, with some of Germany's best players not in this competition.
For Argentina and Mexico, Argentina are ranked 7th while Mexico are 17th. This puts point one to Argentina.
In their confrontations they have played 26 games, with Argentina winning 11, drawing 11 and only losing 4. This puts point two easily to Argentina.
As well as having two World Cup victories, Argentina are also led by Diego Maradona, who won one of those cups. But in more recent years they have not made it past the quarter-finals. Mexico have not made it past the final 16, and only reached the quarter-finals when they hosted the competition. Point three to Argentina.
And in this World Cup, Argentina have a group stage record of 3 wins, while Mexico are on 1-1-1. Point four solidly to Argentina.
So Argentina have the best chance of winning!
26/06/2010
Day Sixteen part one: 26/6/2010
Uruguay's dry spell is over
Uruguay played South Korea in the first match of the day. It was raining all through the match, and coming down harder in the second half. The South Americans began well with an early goal, and were unfortunate to not be given a penalty from a Korean handball. Korea took the second-half by storm, however, and had the majority of the possession throughout the match. They eventually got a goal back, destroying Uruguay's clean sheet for the first time in the competition. Uruguay went 337 minutes without any team scoring against them.
Then Uruguay had a fantastically lucky goal that almost hit the post, giving Suarez his third goal in the competition, which puts him well into the Adidas golden boot competition. ITV and FIFA both agree it's one of the best goals so far. After holding on for 13 more minutes, the South Koreans were put out of the World Cup after a fantastic final 16 game.
Later: USA vs Ghana.
As evidenced by the change of title, I'm now branching out into other sports. Also to come: Formula 1 race 9 qualifying.
Uruguay played South Korea in the first match of the day. It was raining all through the match, and coming down harder in the second half. The South Americans began well with an early goal, and were unfortunate to not be given a penalty from a Korean handball. Korea took the second-half by storm, however, and had the majority of the possession throughout the match. They eventually got a goal back, destroying Uruguay's clean sheet for the first time in the competition. Uruguay went 337 minutes without any team scoring against them.
Then Uruguay had a fantastically lucky goal that almost hit the post, giving Suarez his third goal in the competition, which puts him well into the Adidas golden boot competition. ITV and FIFA both agree it's one of the best goals so far. After holding on for 13 more minutes, the South Koreans were put out of the World Cup after a fantastic final 16 game.
Later: USA vs Ghana.
As evidenced by the change of title, I'm now branching out into other sports. Also to come: Formula 1 race 9 qualifying.
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