Day Seventeen preview: 27/6/2010

Germany vs England, Argentina vs Mexico

I hate to do this, but I will take a hard look at the facts.

Germany are 6, England are 8 in the FIFA/Coca-Cola World Rankings. It's a small difference, but gives point one to Germany.
In their most recent confrontations – 2000-2010 only – there have been five games played. England won three, Germany two. Overall, England have won 12 games in normal time, Germans 10 with 5 draws, of which Germany won two because they were knockout games, so in normal play England also have the advantage. So point two goes to England.
From 1994-2006, Germany have always gone to the quarter finals, came second in 2002, and third in 2006. England missed out on the 1994 World Cup, and have otherwise done reasonably but not brilliantly. Point three to Germany.
In the European Championship from 1992-2008, Germany were champions in 1996 (with England as hosts), and were runners-up twice, but only made the first round in 2000 and 2004. England made the semi-final in 1996, and the quarter-final in 2004, but failed to qualify last time. Point four to Germany.
And in terms of group-stage performance, Germany have a 2-0-1 record, while England have a 1-2-0 record. Therefore they are on equal standings in this cup.

So the statistics say Germany will probably win, but England have determination on their side, and a longer starvation from victories. We also have an older, more experienced squad, with some of Germany's best players not in this competition.



For Argentina and Mexico, Argentina are ranked 7th while Mexico are 17th. This puts point one to Argentina.
In their confrontations they have played 26 games, with Argentina winning 11, drawing 11 and only losing 4. This puts point two easily to Argentina.
As well as having two World Cup victories, Argentina are also led by Diego Maradona, who won one of those cups. But in more recent years they have not made it past the quarter-finals. Mexico have not made it past the final 16, and only reached the quarter-finals when they hosted the competition. Point three to Argentina.
And in this World Cup, Argentina have a group stage record of 3 wins, while Mexico are on 1-1-1. Point four solidly to Argentina.

So Argentina have the best chance of winning!