European Games
A lot of friendlies and two Euro 2012 qualifiers today. Here are the more surprising results:
Germany only scraped a draw against much weaker opponents, but at least they did better than England who lost to rivals France. It was also disappointing for Northern Ireland to lose against African team Morocco.
More happily, Poland beat Ivory Coast, Belgium beat Russia, Georgia beat Slovenia, Bulgaria beat Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina beat Slovakia. In each of these games, the lower-ranked side won.
Similarly, there were draws for Luxembourg, Romania and Liechtenstein against much higher-ranked Algeria, Italy and Estonia respectively.
In the Euro 2012 qualifiers there were no surprises, with Finland destroying San Marino as Croatia beat Malta.
Showing posts with label Germany. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Germany. Show all posts
17/11/2010
25/07/2010
Formula 1 Race Eleven: Race
Front Runners
Today's race saw few retirements, and one big controversy: Ferrari. The two Ferraris qualified second and third, but as Vettel tried to force Alonso into the wall, he forgot about Massa and the Brazillian was able to come flying through. Alonso fell in behind Massa, and Vettel went third. Webber was fourth, and Button and Hamilton were fifth and sixth.
Vettel was first to pit, followed by Alonso, Webber and Hamilton. Button was last of the front runners to pit, gaining a reasonable lead that put him into the race ahead of his teammate – who was ahead of Webber.
For the most part, this formation didn't change for the rest of the race, except at the front. Massa was, at some points, going slower than Alonso, and eventually Alonso caught up with his teammate. This is where the controversy comes in. While everyone would have loved to see a battle between the two Ferraris, instead, engineer Rob Smedley was told to tell Massa that Alonso was faster than him – a 'coded' message that anyone could interpret: let Alonso overtake.
But in the end, they didn't finish so far apart, and it ruined a good race without any safety cars. It marred Alonso's victory, and will probably put a lot of tension within the team too. It is illegal to manipulate race standings in this way in the FIA regulations, and has been since Ferrari did the same thing in 2002. It remains to be seen what, if any, penalty will arise.
De La Rosa
De La Rosa, second-oldest man on track, had a great race at first. His team, BMW Sauber, seemed to be doing the same thing that they'd done for Kobayashi in Valencia. He did pit in lap 53, but a tap with Kovalainen near the end meant that he had to take a second stop. But Kovalainen didn't come off so well, being forced to retire in lap 63 – four laps before the end of the race.
Force India
Both Force India drivers had five place penalties because of unscheduled gearbox changes. Sutil started 19th, and Liuzzi started 23rd (Di Grassi was last for the same reason). They did well enough, but had some bad pit stops right at the start of the race after getting the two cars mixed up. Each driver was given tyres for the others' cars, which was against FIA regulations, so they had to stop again to get the right tyres. In the end, Sutil finished 17th because he had a third pit stop, and Liuzzi finished 16th.
New Teams
None of the new teams did fantastically – in fact, all six drivers came almost last, with only Buemi having a worse position thanks to losing his wing in the first lap. Trulli was next out with car problems, and although Lotus got him going again initially, he only made one more lap before retiring properly. Senna (Hispania) and Glock (Virgin) were the only two drivers from the new teams to finish.
The next race is in Hungary, in just one week's time. See you then!
Today's race saw few retirements, and one big controversy: Ferrari. The two Ferraris qualified second and third, but as Vettel tried to force Alonso into the wall, he forgot about Massa and the Brazillian was able to come flying through. Alonso fell in behind Massa, and Vettel went third. Webber was fourth, and Button and Hamilton were fifth and sixth.
Vettel was first to pit, followed by Alonso, Webber and Hamilton. Button was last of the front runners to pit, gaining a reasonable lead that put him into the race ahead of his teammate – who was ahead of Webber.
For the most part, this formation didn't change for the rest of the race, except at the front. Massa was, at some points, going slower than Alonso, and eventually Alonso caught up with his teammate. This is where the controversy comes in. While everyone would have loved to see a battle between the two Ferraris, instead, engineer Rob Smedley was told to tell Massa that Alonso was faster than him – a 'coded' message that anyone could interpret: let Alonso overtake.
But in the end, they didn't finish so far apart, and it ruined a good race without any safety cars. It marred Alonso's victory, and will probably put a lot of tension within the team too. It is illegal to manipulate race standings in this way in the FIA regulations, and has been since Ferrari did the same thing in 2002. It remains to be seen what, if any, penalty will arise.
De La Rosa
De La Rosa, second-oldest man on track, had a great race at first. His team, BMW Sauber, seemed to be doing the same thing that they'd done for Kobayashi in Valencia. He did pit in lap 53, but a tap with Kovalainen near the end meant that he had to take a second stop. But Kovalainen didn't come off so well, being forced to retire in lap 63 – four laps before the end of the race.
Force India
Both Force India drivers had five place penalties because of unscheduled gearbox changes. Sutil started 19th, and Liuzzi started 23rd (Di Grassi was last for the same reason). They did well enough, but had some bad pit stops right at the start of the race after getting the two cars mixed up. Each driver was given tyres for the others' cars, which was against FIA regulations, so they had to stop again to get the right tyres. In the end, Sutil finished 17th because he had a third pit stop, and Liuzzi finished 16th.
New Teams
None of the new teams did fantastically – in fact, all six drivers came almost last, with only Buemi having a worse position thanks to losing his wing in the first lap. Trulli was next out with car problems, and although Lotus got him going again initially, he only made one more lap before retiring properly. Senna (Hispania) and Glock (Virgin) were the only two drivers from the new teams to finish.
The next race is in Hungary, in just one week's time. See you then!
24/07/2010
Formula 1 Race Eleven: Qualifying
Several unscheduled changes to cars have resulted in five place drops for Sutil (gearbox) and Di Grassi (same). They had to try especially hard to make it as far as possible through the qualifying. Sutil's gearbox change comes after problems in practice 3, forcing him to spend most of the session in the pits, but after missing most of practice 2, Hamilton did well in practice 3.
With 14'30” left in qualifying 1, the session was red flagged after a terrible smash from Liuzzi on the home straight after going wide into a damp area of the track. He had already set a time, and seems to be fine, but his car front was completely smashed up. However, it benefited Timo Glock, whose car was still being worked on, giving Virgin more time to check things over and get him ready to set a time.
It seemed likely that Liuzzi and the three new teams would go out in Q1, unless something extraordinary happened. After yet another gearbox problem, Di Grassi failed to set a time at all, putting him at the back of the field. However, Sutil's problems seemed to be sorted as he did well and made it into Q2. In the end, only Hispania's Yamamoto failed to make Liuzzi's time set earlier in the race.
In Q2, Schumacher just failed to make it through to Q3 qualifying 11th, thanks to a great lap from Hulkenberg. Meanwhile, fastest-man-in-the-world Barrichello made it through along with Rosberg and Kubica, and Alonso set an incredibly fast time of 1.14.081. All through the practise and qualifying sessions he has been one of the fastest (and often the fastest) drivers, making up for his bad luck in the past three races. Sutil's five place drop from 14th to 19th boosts Kovalainen, Trulli, Buemi, Alguersuari and De La Rosa up a place each.
Q3 was Alonso's until the very end, when the drivers came out to take their final laps. In the end, Webber went wide on his flying lap, losing him time, but Vettel went first, placing Alonso second, but on the front of the grid for the first time this season. Vettel set a lap time of 1.13.791. Meanwhile, Massa was third and the other Red Bull in fourth. Button and Hamilton claim the third row.
With 14'30” left in qualifying 1, the session was red flagged after a terrible smash from Liuzzi on the home straight after going wide into a damp area of the track. He had already set a time, and seems to be fine, but his car front was completely smashed up. However, it benefited Timo Glock, whose car was still being worked on, giving Virgin more time to check things over and get him ready to set a time.
It seemed likely that Liuzzi and the three new teams would go out in Q1, unless something extraordinary happened. After yet another gearbox problem, Di Grassi failed to set a time at all, putting him at the back of the field. However, Sutil's problems seemed to be sorted as he did well and made it into Q2. In the end, only Hispania's Yamamoto failed to make Liuzzi's time set earlier in the race.
In Q2, Schumacher just failed to make it through to Q3 qualifying 11th, thanks to a great lap from Hulkenberg. Meanwhile, fastest-man-in-the-world Barrichello made it through along with Rosberg and Kubica, and Alonso set an incredibly fast time of 1.14.081. All through the practise and qualifying sessions he has been one of the fastest (and often the fastest) drivers, making up for his bad luck in the past three races. Sutil's five place drop from 14th to 19th boosts Kovalainen, Trulli, Buemi, Alguersuari and De La Rosa up a place each.
Q3 was Alonso's until the very end, when the drivers came out to take their final laps. In the end, Webber went wide on his flying lap, losing him time, but Vettel went first, placing Alonso second, but on the front of the grid for the first time this season. Vettel set a lap time of 1.13.791. Meanwhile, Massa was third and the other Red Bull in fourth. Button and Hamilton claim the third row.
07/07/2010
Day Twenty-seven preview: 7/7/2010
Sorry for the lateness!
Today's the anniversary of the London bombings five years ago, when several terrorists tried to cause chaos in Britain's capital. It came the day after London won the right to host the 2012 Olympics: two days next to each other but with completely different feelings.
As for why this is late: I just got my copy of the Sims 3: Ambitions expansion pack and was trying it out. Good: you get to take over your sim's working life. Bad: laundry! I give it 4 out of 5.
Today's match, which is about to start (aaah!) is Germany vs Spain. This is a close one! Yesterday's match also turned out close as Uruguay played well, but Netherlands eventually won. Here's the stats for today:
1 – FIFA/Coca-Cola World Rankings: Germany are 6th, Spain are 2nd.
2 – Previous matches: of the 20 games, Germany have won 8, drawn 6 and lost 6. Too close to call.
3 – 1994-2006 World Cup ability: Germany have always made the quarter-finals at least, coming second in 2002, and third in 2006. Spain made it to the final 16 in 2006, the quarter-finals in 2002 and 1994, and didn't escape the group stages in 1998.
4 – 1992-2008 Euro Cup ability: Germany won in 1992, and were runners up in 1996 and 2008, but only made the group stages in 2000 and 2004. But Spain won in 2008, although they didn't qualify in 1992, and made the quarter-finals in 1996 and 2000, but only the group stages in 2004. For having beaten Germany in the 2008 final, Spain win here.
5 – 2020 Group stages: Germany and Spain both have 2-0-1 records.
6 – Odds: (as of 4/7/2010 at bet365.com) Spain are 15-8, Germany 2-1.
The teams are so close, it's impossible to guess from the stats who will win.
Today's the anniversary of the London bombings five years ago, when several terrorists tried to cause chaos in Britain's capital. It came the day after London won the right to host the 2012 Olympics: two days next to each other but with completely different feelings.
As for why this is late: I just got my copy of the Sims 3: Ambitions expansion pack and was trying it out. Good: you get to take over your sim's working life. Bad: laundry! I give it 4 out of 5.
Today's match, which is about to start (aaah!) is Germany vs Spain. This is a close one! Yesterday's match also turned out close as Uruguay played well, but Netherlands eventually won. Here's the stats for today:
1 – FIFA/Coca-Cola World Rankings: Germany are 6th, Spain are 2nd.
2 – Previous matches: of the 20 games, Germany have won 8, drawn 6 and lost 6. Too close to call.
3 – 1994-2006 World Cup ability: Germany have always made the quarter-finals at least, coming second in 2002, and third in 2006. Spain made it to the final 16 in 2006, the quarter-finals in 2002 and 1994, and didn't escape the group stages in 1998.
4 – 1992-2008 Euro Cup ability: Germany won in 1992, and were runners up in 1996 and 2008, but only made the group stages in 2000 and 2004. But Spain won in 2008, although they didn't qualify in 1992, and made the quarter-finals in 1996 and 2000, but only the group stages in 2004. For having beaten Germany in the 2008 final, Spain win here.
5 – 2020 Group stages: Germany and Spain both have 2-0-1 records.
6 – Odds: (as of 4/7/2010 at bet365.com) Spain are 15-8, Germany 2-1.
The teams are so close, it's impossible to guess from the stats who will win.
05/07/2010
Semi-Finals: The Players
Let's take a look at the teams remaining in the competition. Most of them have players who play all over the world, except for Germany, whose players all work in their home nation.
In descending order, here are the most popular countries to play in for World Cup finalists:
Germany – 28 players The whole German team plus five Dutchmen.
Spain – 24 players Most of the Spanish team plus one Dutchman and three Uruguayans.
Netherlands – 11 players Nine Dutchmen and two Uruguayans.
England – 8 players Three Spaniards and five Dutchmen.
Italy – 6 players Four Uruguayans and two Dutchmen.
Portugal and Chile – 3 players each All Uruguayans.
Uruguay – 2 players Two Uruguayans.
Argentina, Brazil, Columbia, France, Scotland, Sweden, Turkey – 1 player each Apart from one Dutchman (Scotland), all Uruguayans.
This shows the immense popularity of the European leagues. The first three countries are all finalists, but Uruguay come far down. All of these leagues are either European or South American – the dominance of the sport in these countries is obvious, not just here, but also in the three Europeans and one South American in the final.
In descending order, here are the most popular countries to play in for World Cup finalists:
Germany – 28 players The whole German team plus five Dutchmen.
Spain – 24 players Most of the Spanish team plus one Dutchman and three Uruguayans.
Netherlands – 11 players Nine Dutchmen and two Uruguayans.
England – 8 players Three Spaniards and five Dutchmen.
Italy – 6 players Four Uruguayans and two Dutchmen.
Portugal and Chile – 3 players each All Uruguayans.
Uruguay – 2 players Two Uruguayans.
Argentina, Brazil, Columbia, France, Scotland, Sweden, Turkey – 1 player each Apart from one Dutchman (Scotland), all Uruguayans.
This shows the immense popularity of the European leagues. The first three countries are all finalists, but Uruguay come far down. All of these leagues are either European or South American – the dominance of the sport in these countries is obvious, not just here, but also in the three Europeans and one South American in the final.
04/07/2010
Quarter-Finals Summary: 4/7/2010
Sorry that I've completely failed to post the last few days. It's been busy here. Anyway, Brazil were defeated by the Netherlands, and Uruguay beat Ghana in penalties after Gyan failed to get an in-game penalty at the end that would have put his team through. Oops!
Yesterday, there was an awesome victory for Germany over Argentina, and Spain beat Paraguay. So now the European dominance returns, with three of the four finalists in this continent. Two of the four haven't won a World Cup before, so it's quite possible that we could see a new country winning the cup. Personally, I'm with Spain.
Despite being a low-scoring team (in their five matches they have only had 6 goals), Spain also has the tournament's top goalscorer so far – David Villa, who has scored five of those goals. That's an average of one per game.
Germany's Mueller is also a top scorer with four goals, despite his young age (19). However, he will miss out on their next match – against Spain – because of the yellow card he got in yesterday's game. For all the other players, there is now a yellow card amnesty. This is so that people who get a yellow card in their semi-final game won't miss out on the final/third-place playoff. It's probably also because otherwise, so many people would have one yellow card that the teams might struggle to get enough people together for the final!
Anyway, no more stats on goals per game/cards per game. I'm a little behind on working these things out. I might have them later in the week.
Yesterday, there was an awesome victory for Germany over Argentina, and Spain beat Paraguay. So now the European dominance returns, with three of the four finalists in this continent. Two of the four haven't won a World Cup before, so it's quite possible that we could see a new country winning the cup. Personally, I'm with Spain.
Despite being a low-scoring team (in their five matches they have only had 6 goals), Spain also has the tournament's top goalscorer so far – David Villa, who has scored five of those goals. That's an average of one per game.
Germany's Mueller is also a top scorer with four goals, despite his young age (19). However, he will miss out on their next match – against Spain – because of the yellow card he got in yesterday's game. For all the other players, there is now a yellow card amnesty. This is so that people who get a yellow card in their semi-final game won't miss out on the final/third-place playoff. It's probably also because otherwise, so many people would have one yellow card that the teams might struggle to get enough people together for the final!
Anyway, no more stats on goals per game/cards per game. I'm a little behind on working these things out. I might have them later in the week.
01/07/2010
The Quarter Finals: Continental Drift
Now we're up to the final eight teams in the competition. They come from three continents, but how does this compare to previous competitions? We were only ever going to get three European teams through, as a twist of fate meant they ended up playing each other instead of nations from other continents.
The perceived European dominance of football has been severely dented this year – only three sides made it from here, and most of the teams come from South America. In previous years, there was a European dominance, with maybe a couple of teams from South America. Even in 2002, Europe had more representation, and the other teams came from a wide spread of continents.
There has never been a World Cup winner outside of Europe or South America, and it looks like that will continue this year. Only Paraguay of the South American teams remaining has not won a cup, but only Germany from the European sides has done so. So it is possible that we may get a new World Cup winner this year – I'm supporting Spain.
| Continent | 1998 | 2002 | 2006 | 2010 |
| Africa | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Asia | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Australasia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Europe | 6 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| North/Central America0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| South America | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
The perceived European dominance of football has been severely dented this year – only three sides made it from here, and most of the teams come from South America. In previous years, there was a European dominance, with maybe a couple of teams from South America. Even in 2002, Europe had more representation, and the other teams came from a wide spread of continents.
There has never been a World Cup winner outside of Europe or South America, and it looks like that will continue this year. Only Paraguay of the South American teams remaining has not won a cup, but only Germany from the European sides has done so. So it is possible that we may get a new World Cup winner this year – I'm supporting Spain.
The Quarter Finals: Odds
Eight teams have been eliminated from the competition, and eight remain. Obviously, the bookies have now had to revise their odds. In comparison to last time, the odds have changed a bit. The change (+ if you get more back, - if you get less back) is shown after the odds. Let's take a look at the teams. As before, the odds are bet365.com, Ladbrookes, William Hill (10.00am 1/7/2010):
1-Brazil. Brazil are, unsurprisingly, still top. They easily took care of Chile. They're up against Netherlands/Holland next, who are also a good side. (12-5, 9-4, 5-2 -)
2-Spain. Viva la Espana! They managed to beat Portugal, and now face Paraguay. Not too hard for the Euro Champions. (11-4, 3-1, 11-4 -)
4-Netherlands. Now the third-best in the competition, but they face Brazil next. Can they do it? (7-1, 7-1, 7-1 +)
6-Germany. Germany easily beat a terrible England team. They play Argentina next, who are another fantastic, England-beating side. (7-1, 6-1, 13-2 -)
7-Argentina. And Argentina are just below Germany in the rankings. Both countries have won cups before, so there's pressure at home for more. (4-1, 7-2, 9-2 -)
16-Uruguay. They face Ghana next, and have done well so far in the competition. They are the third of four South American sides still in the competition! (14-1, 14-1, 16-1 -)
31-Paraguay. Paraguay face Spain. They're a long way down, but can David beat Goliath this time? (40-1, 40-1, 50-1 +)
32-Ghana. The last African nation left. They have a nation upholding them, but they're playing Uruguay. (33-1, 33-1, 40-1 -)
The biggest changes were with Ghana (decreasing) and Paraguay (increasing). Paraguay have taken Slovakia's place as outsiders.
1-Brazil. Brazil are, unsurprisingly, still top. They easily took care of Chile. They're up against Netherlands/Holland next, who are also a good side. (12-5, 9-4, 5-2 -)
2-Spain. Viva la Espana! They managed to beat Portugal, and now face Paraguay. Not too hard for the Euro Champions. (11-4, 3-1, 11-4 -)
4-Netherlands. Now the third-best in the competition, but they face Brazil next. Can they do it? (7-1, 7-1, 7-1 +)
6-Germany. Germany easily beat a terrible England team. They play Argentina next, who are another fantastic, England-beating side. (7-1, 6-1, 13-2 -)
7-Argentina. And Argentina are just below Germany in the rankings. Both countries have won cups before, so there's pressure at home for more. (4-1, 7-2, 9-2 -)
16-Uruguay. They face Ghana next, and have done well so far in the competition. They are the third of four South American sides still in the competition! (14-1, 14-1, 16-1 -)
31-Paraguay. Paraguay face Spain. They're a long way down, but can David beat Goliath this time? (40-1, 40-1, 50-1 +)
32-Ghana. The last African nation left. They have a nation upholding them, but they're playing Uruguay. (33-1, 33-1, 40-1 -)
The biggest changes were with Ghana (decreasing) and Paraguay (increasing). Paraguay have taken Slovakia's place as outsiders.
27/06/2010
Day Seventeen: 27/6/2010
The stats prove true
But let's hope not for the entire knockout rounds. Germany beat England after one of the England goals was disallowed despite being over the line. More calls have gone out for Sepp Blatter to change FIFA's stance on technology – he was the trending topic on Twitter, along with the ref of that game. Admittedly, Germany were the better team. The last Italian has now left the competition with a little more dignity than the others! FA – we'd like to keep Fabio please. He's nice.
Argentina also played fantastically against Mexico, who were no match for Maradona's team. Higuain got his fourth goal of the tournament, which once again puts him the top goalscorer. If Argentina keep up their performance, they could win the cup, and Higuain could well get the Adidas golden boot.
There has been an incredible increase in the number of goals scored per game. Just in the knockout stages, the average has been 3.75 goals per game! There's clearly a great desire to win, and sometimes the competition just hasn't met up to expectations (England).
Nor have the referees. Linesman Mauricio Espinosa was the one who declared Lampard's goal to not be a goal, but the referee Jorge Larrionda has now made two mistakes in this cup, having also not called a handball in the Australia-Serbia game that would have given Serbia a penalty and maybe put them through.
The only Englishman left in the competition is Howard WEBB, the referee, who has had a good performance so far. I hope he gets the final, but if Germany gets through then that probably won't be such a good idea.
Goals per game: Mean – 2.25, Median – 2, Mode – 2, Range – 7
Cards per game: Mean – 3.9, Median – 4, Mode – 5, Range – 10
Predictions for tomorrow: Netherlands have the experience, but Slovakia beat Italy. It's hard to call, but I'm going to risk it and go for the Slovaks. Well, I have to get one wrong! Brazil are definitely going to beat Chile, despite the fact that one of the Chilleans is called Isla.
But let's hope not for the entire knockout rounds. Germany beat England after one of the England goals was disallowed despite being over the line. More calls have gone out for Sepp Blatter to change FIFA's stance on technology – he was the trending topic on Twitter, along with the ref of that game. Admittedly, Germany were the better team. The last Italian has now left the competition with a little more dignity than the others! FA – we'd like to keep Fabio please. He's nice.
Argentina also played fantastically against Mexico, who were no match for Maradona's team. Higuain got his fourth goal of the tournament, which once again puts him the top goalscorer. If Argentina keep up their performance, they could win the cup, and Higuain could well get the Adidas golden boot.
There has been an incredible increase in the number of goals scored per game. Just in the knockout stages, the average has been 3.75 goals per game! There's clearly a great desire to win, and sometimes the competition just hasn't met up to expectations (England).
Nor have the referees. Linesman Mauricio Espinosa was the one who declared Lampard's goal to not be a goal, but the referee Jorge Larrionda has now made two mistakes in this cup, having also not called a handball in the Australia-Serbia game that would have given Serbia a penalty and maybe put them through.
The only Englishman left in the competition is Howard WEBB, the referee, who has had a good performance so far. I hope he gets the final, but if Germany gets through then that probably won't be such a good idea.
Goals per game: Mean – 2.25, Median – 2, Mode – 2, Range – 7
Cards per game: Mean – 3.9, Median – 4, Mode – 5, Range – 10
Predictions for tomorrow: Netherlands have the experience, but Slovakia beat Italy. It's hard to call, but I'm going to risk it and go for the Slovaks. Well, I have to get one wrong! Brazil are definitely going to beat Chile, despite the fact that one of the Chilleans is called Isla.
Day Seventeen preview: 27/6/2010
Germany vs England, Argentina vs Mexico
I hate to do this, but I will take a hard look at the facts.
Germany are 6, England are 8 in the FIFA/Coca-Cola World Rankings. It's a small difference, but gives point one to Germany.
In their most recent confrontations – 2000-2010 only – there have been five games played. England won three, Germany two. Overall, England have won 12 games in normal time, Germans 10 with 5 draws, of which Germany won two because they were knockout games, so in normal play England also have the advantage. So point two goes to England.
From 1994-2006, Germany have always gone to the quarter finals, came second in 2002, and third in 2006. England missed out on the 1994 World Cup, and have otherwise done reasonably but not brilliantly. Point three to Germany.
In the European Championship from 1992-2008, Germany were champions in 1996 (with England as hosts), and were runners-up twice, but only made the first round in 2000 and 2004. England made the semi-final in 1996, and the quarter-final in 2004, but failed to qualify last time. Point four to Germany.
And in terms of group-stage performance, Germany have a 2-0-1 record, while England have a 1-2-0 record. Therefore they are on equal standings in this cup.
So the statistics say Germany will probably win, but England have determination on their side, and a longer starvation from victories. We also have an older, more experienced squad, with some of Germany's best players not in this competition.
For Argentina and Mexico, Argentina are ranked 7th while Mexico are 17th. This puts point one to Argentina.
In their confrontations they have played 26 games, with Argentina winning 11, drawing 11 and only losing 4. This puts point two easily to Argentina.
As well as having two World Cup victories, Argentina are also led by Diego Maradona, who won one of those cups. But in more recent years they have not made it past the quarter-finals. Mexico have not made it past the final 16, and only reached the quarter-finals when they hosted the competition. Point three to Argentina.
And in this World Cup, Argentina have a group stage record of 3 wins, while Mexico are on 1-1-1. Point four solidly to Argentina.
So Argentina have the best chance of winning!
I hate to do this, but I will take a hard look at the facts.
Germany are 6, England are 8 in the FIFA/Coca-Cola World Rankings. It's a small difference, but gives point one to Germany.
In their most recent confrontations – 2000-2010 only – there have been five games played. England won three, Germany two. Overall, England have won 12 games in normal time, Germans 10 with 5 draws, of which Germany won two because they were knockout games, so in normal play England also have the advantage. So point two goes to England.
From 1994-2006, Germany have always gone to the quarter finals, came second in 2002, and third in 2006. England missed out on the 1994 World Cup, and have otherwise done reasonably but not brilliantly. Point three to Germany.
In the European Championship from 1992-2008, Germany were champions in 1996 (with England as hosts), and were runners-up twice, but only made the first round in 2000 and 2004. England made the semi-final in 1996, and the quarter-final in 2004, but failed to qualify last time. Point four to Germany.
And in terms of group-stage performance, Germany have a 2-0-1 record, while England have a 1-2-0 record. Therefore they are on equal standings in this cup.
So the statistics say Germany will probably win, but England have determination on their side, and a longer starvation from victories. We also have an older, more experienced squad, with some of Germany's best players not in this competition.
For Argentina and Mexico, Argentina are ranked 7th while Mexico are 17th. This puts point one to Argentina.
In their confrontations they have played 26 games, with Argentina winning 11, drawing 11 and only losing 4. This puts point two easily to Argentina.
As well as having two World Cup victories, Argentina are also led by Diego Maradona, who won one of those cups. But in more recent years they have not made it past the quarter-finals. Mexico have not made it past the final 16, and only reached the quarter-finals when they hosted the competition. Point three to Argentina.
And in this World Cup, Argentina have a group stage record of 3 wins, while Mexico are on 1-1-1. Point four solidly to Argentina.
So Argentina have the best chance of winning!
23/06/2010
Day Thirteen part two: 23/6/2010
Predictions fail
Here are the goal time statistics:
Earliest Goal – 4 minutes, Stephen Gerrard for England against USA
Latest Goal – 95 minutes, Pereira for Uruguay against South Africa
Latest first goal – 92 minutes, Donovan for USA against Algeria
Mean – 51.7 minutes, Median – 52 (UQ - 73, LQ – 29)
So most goals seem to be scored in the middle of the game, around the start of the second half.
A fantastic pair of games to start the day off, with England playing Slovenia and the USA taking on Algeria. Somehow, England beat Slovenia 1-0, holding them off for a long time and unfortunately not scoring again, but preventing Slovenia from getting themselves a goal back. That guaranteed England's entry into the final 16, but Slovenia's future was uncertain. At the end of the match, the USA were still in a 0-0 tie with Algeria, but a fantastic goal in the 92nd minute from Donovan got the USA through, and left the Slovenians out of their first World Cup. This confirmed my first two predictions from yesterday's post.
England qualified after scoring only two goals in the competition – one against the US, and one against Slovenia, and this makes them so far the lowest-scoring team to qualify. Incidentally, this is the first time in over 40 years that England have ended the first half 1-0 against a European side and gone on to win (previously they had draws with Sweden in 2006 and 2002, and Ireland in 1990, and a loss against West Germany in 1970).
Next, Germany took on Ghana while Serbia played Australia. I predicted that Germany and Serbia would go through. For the first time in a World Cup, two brothers played against each other – German Jermome BOATENG took on his brother Kevin-Prince Boateng – their father is Ghanese, mother German. Kevin-Prince even played for Germany in the youth teams before choosing to play for his father's country. There's even a second Boateng on the Ghanan side – Derek - but he doesn't seem to be a relation.
In the end, Germany came first to nobody's surprise. Second was Ghana, thanks to their goal difference. So my prediction was not entirely correct. Germany will go through to face England – a great rivalry fuelled originally by the World Wars, and latterly by England's World Cup victory in 1966. In the history of England-Germany matches, they have played 27 times, with England winning 12 matches, Germany winning 10 and taking the two penalty shoot-outs that resulted in competition. There have been three friendly draws. England will hope to win outright, as Germany are unbeaten at penalties. Ghana face the mighty USA, and are probably going to be the only African team to qualify. Even if Ivory Coast beat North Korea and Portugal lose to Brazil (very likely), they will have to get an incredible score (and Portugal will have to lose by a lot of goals).
Goals per game: Mean – 2.08, Median – 2, Mode – 2, Range – 7
Cards per game: Mean – 3.93, Median – 4, Mode – 2,5, Range - 9
Predictions for tomorrow: Netherlands (playing failed Cameroon) and Japan from group E, Paraguay and (hopefully) Italy from group F. Paraguay is the only team to have won a game in this group, and as the Cup holders, Italy have a great incentive to continue.
Here are the goal time statistics:
Earliest Goal – 4 minutes, Stephen Gerrard for England against USA
Latest Goal – 95 minutes, Pereira for Uruguay against South Africa
Latest first goal – 92 minutes, Donovan for USA against Algeria
Mean – 51.7 minutes, Median – 52 (UQ - 73, LQ – 29)
So most goals seem to be scored in the middle of the game, around the start of the second half.
A fantastic pair of games to start the day off, with England playing Slovenia and the USA taking on Algeria. Somehow, England beat Slovenia 1-0, holding them off for a long time and unfortunately not scoring again, but preventing Slovenia from getting themselves a goal back. That guaranteed England's entry into the final 16, but Slovenia's future was uncertain. At the end of the match, the USA were still in a 0-0 tie with Algeria, but a fantastic goal in the 92nd minute from Donovan got the USA through, and left the Slovenians out of their first World Cup. This confirmed my first two predictions from yesterday's post.
England qualified after scoring only two goals in the competition – one against the US, and one against Slovenia, and this makes them so far the lowest-scoring team to qualify. Incidentally, this is the first time in over 40 years that England have ended the first half 1-0 against a European side and gone on to win (previously they had draws with Sweden in 2006 and 2002, and Ireland in 1990, and a loss against West Germany in 1970).
Next, Germany took on Ghana while Serbia played Australia. I predicted that Germany and Serbia would go through. For the first time in a World Cup, two brothers played against each other – German Jermome BOATENG took on his brother Kevin-Prince Boateng – their father is Ghanese, mother German. Kevin-Prince even played for Germany in the youth teams before choosing to play for his father's country. There's even a second Boateng on the Ghanan side – Derek - but he doesn't seem to be a relation.
In the end, Germany came first to nobody's surprise. Second was Ghana, thanks to their goal difference. So my prediction was not entirely correct. Germany will go through to face England – a great rivalry fuelled originally by the World Wars, and latterly by England's World Cup victory in 1966. In the history of England-Germany matches, they have played 27 times, with England winning 12 matches, Germany winning 10 and taking the two penalty shoot-outs that resulted in competition. There have been three friendly draws. England will hope to win outright, as Germany are unbeaten at penalties. Ghana face the mighty USA, and are probably going to be the only African team to qualify. Even if Ivory Coast beat North Korea and Portugal lose to Brazil (very likely), they will have to get an incredible score (and Portugal will have to lose by a lot of goals).
Goals per game: Mean – 2.08, Median – 2, Mode – 2, Range – 7
Cards per game: Mean – 3.93, Median – 4, Mode – 2,5, Range - 9
Predictions for tomorrow: Netherlands (playing failed Cameroon) and Japan from group E, Paraguay and (hopefully) Italy from group F. Paraguay is the only team to have won a game in this group, and as the Cup holders, Italy have a great incentive to continue.
18/06/2010
Day Eight: 18/6/2010
Disappointment all around, except in America
Well, there's been some pathetic football played today. Like France yesterday, Germany and England were not in form. The USA also started off slowly before fighting back to a fantastic 2-2 draw. In the words of @billybragg: "USA continue their winning streak with a brilliant 2-2 victory over Slovenia".
Let's start with the promised goal stats. So far in the tournament, 43 goals have been scored.
3 were from penalties, 2 were own goals, 10 were from set pieces (although Fifa hasn't classified one of Greece's, which was from a corner, so that means 11).
The Germany-Serbia match was definitely the roughest game so far, with nine yellow cards - two of which went to Miroslav KLOSE, who had scored against Australia. Serbia managed to score, and despite giving away a penalty, Lukas PODOLSKI was unable to score. Usually a fantastic team, this is the first match Germany have lost in the group stages since 1986, in a match against Denmark. For Serbia, it's their first win in a World Cup since beating the USA in 1998.
So let's look at our card-happy referee, Spaniard Alberto UNDIANO. Nine cards isn't particularly large for him; he also gave 10 yellow cards in the semi-final of the UEFA U21 Championship in 2006. Just look at his record. He has an average of 7 cards per game, and his Wikipedia page was updated within seconds of the match ending.
Next up was a much better game. America played Slovenia to a 2-2 draw. Serbia were two goals ahead in the first half, but fantastic play from the USA brought them level again in the second. The USA now have eighteen World Cup group matches in a row without a clean sheet, which is not a good record for number one goalkeeper Tim Howard. It's not just Tim Howard, though. The last time they did so was back in 1950, 60 years ago, when they had a 1-0 victory over England.
Interestingly, if Slovenia had won, they would have been the first team to guarantee qualification to the group stages. Now, that honour will go somewhere else. Slovenia are ranked 25 in the FIFA/Coca-Cola world rankings, while the USA are 14. The lowest-ranked team in the Cup are automatic-qualifiers South Africa at 85, while New Zealand just above them are the 78th best team in the world.
Ranked 8th in the world, England should have done better tonight against Algeria. They stumbled all over the pitch, and Fabio CAPELLO was having a very bad birthday. To be fair, so was Algerian BELHADJ, but as a top seeded team, England should have done better. But it seems Argentina are the only top team doing well so far.
Goals per game: Mean - 1.87, Median - 2, Mode – 1,2, Range - 5
Cards per game: Mean – 3.97, Median – 4, Mode – 3, Range - 8
Birthday: Tomorrow, 19th June, is the birthday of Brazilian KLEBERSON. Being a footballer for Brazil means he has enough to celebrate about, and his team aren't playing. Happy 31st birthday!
Well, there's been some pathetic football played today. Like France yesterday, Germany and England were not in form. The USA also started off slowly before fighting back to a fantastic 2-2 draw. In the words of @billybragg: "USA continue their winning streak with a brilliant 2-2 victory over Slovenia".
Let's start with the promised goal stats. So far in the tournament, 43 goals have been scored.
3 were from penalties, 2 were own goals, 10 were from set pieces (although Fifa hasn't classified one of Greece's, which was from a corner, so that means 11).
The Germany-Serbia match was definitely the roughest game so far, with nine yellow cards - two of which went to Miroslav KLOSE, who had scored against Australia. Serbia managed to score, and despite giving away a penalty, Lukas PODOLSKI was unable to score. Usually a fantastic team, this is the first match Germany have lost in the group stages since 1986, in a match against Denmark. For Serbia, it's their first win in a World Cup since beating the USA in 1998.
So let's look at our card-happy referee, Spaniard Alberto UNDIANO. Nine cards isn't particularly large for him; he also gave 10 yellow cards in the semi-final of the UEFA U21 Championship in 2006. Just look at his record. He has an average of 7 cards per game, and his Wikipedia page was updated within seconds of the match ending.
Next up was a much better game. America played Slovenia to a 2-2 draw. Serbia were two goals ahead in the first half, but fantastic play from the USA brought them level again in the second. The USA now have eighteen World Cup group matches in a row without a clean sheet, which is not a good record for number one goalkeeper Tim Howard. It's not just Tim Howard, though. The last time they did so was back in 1950, 60 years ago, when they had a 1-0 victory over England.
Interestingly, if Slovenia had won, they would have been the first team to guarantee qualification to the group stages. Now, that honour will go somewhere else. Slovenia are ranked 25 in the FIFA/Coca-Cola world rankings, while the USA are 14. The lowest-ranked team in the Cup are automatic-qualifiers South Africa at 85, while New Zealand just above them are the 78th best team in the world.
Ranked 8th in the world, England should have done better tonight against Algeria. They stumbled all over the pitch, and Fabio CAPELLO was having a very bad birthday. To be fair, so was Algerian BELHADJ, but as a top seeded team, England should have done better. But it seems Argentina are the only top team doing well so far.
Goals per game: Mean - 1.87, Median - 2, Mode – 1,2, Range - 5
Cards per game: Mean – 3.97, Median – 4, Mode – 3, Range - 8
Birthday: Tomorrow, 19th June, is the birthday of Brazilian KLEBERSON. Being a footballer for Brazil means he has enough to celebrate about, and his team aren't playing. Happy 31st birthday!
13/06/2010
Day Three: 13/6/2010
Germany liven things up
Finally, a team that lives up to expectations! Germany totally thrashed their weak Australian opponents. We also had our second sending-off of the tournament, with Algerian substitute Abdelkader GHEZZAL receiving two yellow cards.
In the first match, Slovenia scraped a 1-0 win against Algeria to go top of Group C thanks to the England-USA draw yesterday. Their goalscorer Robert KOREN deservedly got man-of-the match (I voted for him - you can vote for the man of the match if you watch the commentary at fifa's website). He's the team captain at 29 years of age, and plays for West Bromwich Albion – a good, solid West Midlands team. This is his fifth international goal.
The sent-off Algerian Ghezzal is younger, at 25 years old, and plays in Italy. He's had 20 international caps so far. He was actually born in France, like several other Algeria squad members. In total there were five yellow cards given out in the game.
The second match was Serbia against Ghana. The African side just scraped a win, with goalscorer Asamoah GYAN scoring from a penalty received after one of the Serbian players handballed in the penalty area. Surprisingly the first forward to score in the tournament, he has 20 international goals to his 24 years, and plays in France.
Serbian send-off Aleksandar LUKOVIC hasn't scored any international goals, which isn't surprising as he's a defender, and he's 27 years old. There were six yellows in the game, four of which were received by Serbia.
Finally, there was Germany's brilliant match against Australia that brought some life to the tournament. We also had our first straight red card of the tournament, going to Australia. All four of the German goals were scored by different players, including single-named substitute CACAU, who replaced goalscorer Miroslav KLOSE. Unfortunately, Cacau was also one of two Germans to receive a yellow card, so it was a mixed game for him – all 22 minutes he was on the pitch! (Australia got three yellow cards to go with Tim CAHILL's red)
Goals per game: Mean – 1.625, Median – 2, Mode – 1,2, Range - 4
Cards per game: Mean – 4.625, Median – 5.5, Mode – 6, Range - 6
A rough tournament with few goals so far. Let's hope it improves tomorrow!
Finally, a team that lives up to expectations! Germany totally thrashed their weak Australian opponents. We also had our second sending-off of the tournament, with Algerian substitute Abdelkader GHEZZAL receiving two yellow cards.
In the first match, Slovenia scraped a 1-0 win against Algeria to go top of Group C thanks to the England-USA draw yesterday. Their goalscorer Robert KOREN deservedly got man-of-the match (I voted for him - you can vote for the man of the match if you watch the commentary at fifa's website). He's the team captain at 29 years of age, and plays for West Bromwich Albion – a good, solid West Midlands team. This is his fifth international goal.
The sent-off Algerian Ghezzal is younger, at 25 years old, and plays in Italy. He's had 20 international caps so far. He was actually born in France, like several other Algeria squad members. In total there were five yellow cards given out in the game.
The second match was Serbia against Ghana. The African side just scraped a win, with goalscorer Asamoah GYAN scoring from a penalty received after one of the Serbian players handballed in the penalty area. Surprisingly the first forward to score in the tournament, he has 20 international goals to his 24 years, and plays in France.
Serbian send-off Aleksandar LUKOVIC hasn't scored any international goals, which isn't surprising as he's a defender, and he's 27 years old. There were six yellows in the game, four of which were received by Serbia.
Finally, there was Germany's brilliant match against Australia that brought some life to the tournament. We also had our first straight red card of the tournament, going to Australia. All four of the German goals were scored by different players, including single-named substitute CACAU, who replaced goalscorer Miroslav KLOSE. Unfortunately, Cacau was also one of two Germans to receive a yellow card, so it was a mixed game for him – all 22 minutes he was on the pitch! (Australia got three yellow cards to go with Tim CAHILL's red)
Goals per game: Mean – 1.625, Median – 2, Mode – 1,2, Range - 4
Cards per game: Mean – 4.625, Median – 5.5, Mode – 6, Range - 6
A rough tournament with few goals so far. Let's hope it improves tomorrow!
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