Day Thirteen part two: 23/6/2010

Predictions fail

Here are the goal time statistics:

Earliest Goal – 4 minutes, Stephen Gerrard for England against USA
Latest Goal – 95 minutes, Pereira for Uruguay against South Africa
Latest first goal – 92 minutes, Donovan for USA against Algeria
Mean – 51.7 minutes, Median – 52 (UQ - 73, LQ – 29)
So most goals seem to be scored in the middle of the game, around the start of the second half.

A fantastic pair of games to start the day off, with England playing Slovenia and the USA taking on Algeria. Somehow, England beat Slovenia 1-0, holding them off for a long time and unfortunately not scoring again, but preventing Slovenia from getting themselves a goal back. That guaranteed England's entry into the final 16, but Slovenia's future was uncertain. At the end of the match, the USA were still in a 0-0 tie with Algeria, but a fantastic goal in the 92nd minute from Donovan got the USA through, and left the Slovenians out of their first World Cup. This confirmed my first two predictions from yesterday's post.

England qualified after scoring only two goals in the competition – one against the US, and one against Slovenia, and this makes them so far the lowest-scoring team to qualify. Incidentally, this is the first time in over 40 years that England have ended the first half 1-0 against a European side and gone on to win (previously they had draws with Sweden in 2006 and 2002, and Ireland in 1990, and a loss against West Germany in 1970).

Next, Germany took on Ghana while Serbia played Australia. I predicted that Germany and Serbia would go through. For the first time in a World Cup, two brothers played against each other – German Jermome BOATENG took on his brother Kevin-Prince Boateng – their father is Ghanese, mother German. Kevin-Prince even played for Germany in the youth teams before choosing to play for his father's country. There's even a second Boateng on the Ghanan side – Derek - but he doesn't seem to be a relation.

In the end, Germany came first to nobody's surprise. Second was Ghana, thanks to their goal difference. So my prediction was not entirely correct. Germany will go through to face England – a great rivalry fuelled originally by the World Wars, and latterly by England's World Cup victory in 1966. In the history of England-Germany matches, they have played 27 times, with England winning 12 matches, Germany winning 10 and taking the two penalty shoot-outs that resulted in competition. There have been three friendly draws. England will hope to win outright, as Germany are unbeaten at penalties. Ghana face the mighty USA, and are probably going to be the only African team to qualify. Even if Ivory Coast beat North Korea and Portugal lose to Brazil (very likely), they will have to get an incredible score (and Portugal will have to lose by a lot of goals).

Goals per game: Mean – 2.08, Median – 2, Mode – 2, Range – 7
Cards per game: Mean – 3.93, Median – 4, Mode – 2,5, Range - 9

Predictions for tomorrow: Netherlands (playing failed Cameroon) and Japan from group E, Paraguay and (hopefully) Italy from group F. Paraguay is the only team to have won a game in this group, and as the Cup holders, Italy have a great incentive to continue.