As promised, FIFA's ranks were updated today. I was probably a bit optimistic with some of my predictions. Here's what actually happened:
Biggest movers upwards:
Liechtenstein - this tiny nation were massively boosted over the last month, jumping 10 places to 148. This is still seven places lower than where they were in August, and comes thanks to their draw with Estonia.
Bosnia and Herzegovina - up 7 places thanks to a win over Slovakia and a draw with Poland. They're now ranked 44 in the world, and 13 places over their August rank.
Up five - Belgium (57), Georgia (73), Israel (50) and Malta (164). Georgia are continuing their rise from the bottom of the table, rather more sedately than Montenegro's. Israel, Malta and Belgium, however, all have lower positions than their August ranks.
Up four - Finland (83), which is still rubbish when you consider they were 32 positions higher in August.
Up three - Austria (46), Cyprus (90) and France (18). France, having beaten England, are starting to get back in order and returning to their usual position. Austria have also done well, rising 14 positions since August. Cyprus... well, their 2010 has been all over the place, with dramatic rises and falls.
Biggest movers downwards:
Lithuania - they've been up slightly, but now have lost out, returning to approximately their August position. In their game over the last month, they were beaten by Hungary.
Estonia - down 8, a disappointing drop for the Estonians who drew with Liechtenstein. But they're still up on their August position.
Azerbaijan - they had some good rises in position since August, but have now started dropping again. They're down 8, but still up overall.
Albania - much like Azerbaijan, it's the first drop after a run of rises. So they're still up on their August ranking.
Down 5 - Latvia (78) and Faroe Islands (136). It's just another drop in the series for unlucky Latvia, who were 49 in August. As for the Faroes, they didn't play in November/December as their friendly was just before the previous calculation.
Down 4 - Ireland (36), Romania (56). Ireland's is no change overall since August, but Romania continue to drop.
Showing posts with label FIFA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label FIFA. Show all posts
15/12/2010
10/12/2010
FIFA Rankings December 2010 (prediction)
There were a whole bunch of friendlies plus two qualifiers just after the November rankings were released, plus a friendly between Poland and Bosnia&Herzegovina on 10th December. Looking at the results of these games, I predict:
Poland and Bosnia-Herzegovina drew 2-2, but won their earlier friendlies against Ivory Coast (19) and Slovakia (18) respectively, so both teams should gain. Their opponents will lose out.
England will probably fall in points, though maybe not position, as will Germany. France should gain after beating England.
Portugal beat first-placed Spain 4-0, incredibly. That gets them the maximum possible points for a friendly game - 600 - and may result in them even overtaking England (dare I say it). The Netherlands, who beat their opponents Turkey (29), might even go top. But that's less likely.
Expect Luxembourg, Romania, Northern Ireland and Belgium to do well after draws. Northern Ireland's was with a poorer team, but they maintain good form.
Finally, Georgia beat much better opponents in the form of Slovenia (15), and will also gain.
Poland and Bosnia-Herzegovina drew 2-2, but won their earlier friendlies against Ivory Coast (19) and Slovakia (18) respectively, so both teams should gain. Their opponents will lose out.
England will probably fall in points, though maybe not position, as will Germany. France should gain after beating England.
Portugal beat first-placed Spain 4-0, incredibly. That gets them the maximum possible points for a friendly game - 600 - and may result in them even overtaking England (dare I say it). The Netherlands, who beat their opponents Turkey (29), might even go top. But that's less likely.
Expect Luxembourg, Romania, Northern Ireland and Belgium to do well after draws. Northern Ireland's was with a poorer team, but they maintain good form.
Finally, Georgia beat much better opponents in the form of Slovenia (15), and will also gain.
02/12/2010
World Cup 2018 and 2022
Now we know:
Russia will host the 2018 World Cup, and Qatar will host the 2022 World Cup. If I make it to 2022, that will be 12 years of this blog and I'll probably be out of touch - everyone will have moved on from blogging.
England, naturally, are disappointed. Still, we do get the Olympics in 2012 - which I hope to be volunteering at - so we're not completely bereft of sport. But as a country we are so able to host the competition, with our fantastic stadiums! In the last world cup, England had a greater proportion of players in our leagues than any other country - including Spain and Germany, who have fantastic leagues too.
Other countries that missed out are Japan, South Korea, the USA, Australia (all 2022), Spain/Portugal and Netherlands/Belgium (2018 - joint bids). It will be interesting to see how these countries handle the cup. Qatar should do well, but Russia... could be interesting.
No international football over the next months for Europe, but FIFA will be updating the rankings on December 15th.
Russia will host the 2018 World Cup, and Qatar will host the 2022 World Cup. If I make it to 2022, that will be 12 years of this blog and I'll probably be out of touch - everyone will have moved on from blogging.
England, naturally, are disappointed. Still, we do get the Olympics in 2012 - which I hope to be volunteering at - so we're not completely bereft of sport. But as a country we are so able to host the competition, with our fantastic stadiums! In the last world cup, England had a greater proportion of players in our leagues than any other country - including Spain and Germany, who have fantastic leagues too.
Other countries that missed out are Japan, South Korea, the USA, Australia (all 2022), Spain/Portugal and Netherlands/Belgium (2018 - joint bids). It will be interesting to see how these countries handle the cup. Qatar should do well, but Russia... could be interesting.
No international football over the next months for Europe, but FIFA will be updating the rankings on December 15th.
17/11/2010
FIFA/Coca-Cola Rankings Adjustment November 2010
No real change
The updates today to the FIFA rankings are minimal in Europe. This is because only Cyprus, Scotland and the Faroe Islands have played since the last update, although Italy and Serbia's game has now been taken into account. There are a lot of friendly matches and two Euro 2012 qualifying matches tonight, which will be considered on December 15th.
Biggest risers: Albania are up seven to 58th. They have not lost any places since August, when I first started tracking things. Nobody else has gained more than three places in the world rankings. However, Greece rise one place to 11th. Italy gain two places.
Biggest fallers: Wales fall seven to 111th. They're by far the worst of the British teams. Moldova and Macedonia each lose six places, and Cyprus lose five despite their draw with Jordan yesterday. Russia, who were briefly in the top 10, fall to thirteenth as Egypt get the number 10 slot. Serbia lose 3 places.
The updates today to the FIFA rankings are minimal in Europe. This is because only Cyprus, Scotland and the Faroe Islands have played since the last update, although Italy and Serbia's game has now been taken into account. There are a lot of friendly matches and two Euro 2012 qualifying matches tonight, which will be considered on December 15th.
Biggest risers: Albania are up seven to 58th. They have not lost any places since August, when I first started tracking things. Nobody else has gained more than three places in the world rankings. However, Greece rise one place to 11th. Italy gain two places.
Biggest fallers: Wales fall seven to 111th. They're by far the worst of the British teams. Moldova and Macedonia each lose six places, and Cyprus lose five despite their draw with Jordan yesterday. Russia, who were briefly in the top 10, fall to thirteenth as Egypt get the number 10 slot. Serbia lose 3 places.
20/10/2010
FIFA/Coca-Cola Rankings Adjustment October 2010
Armenia are amazing!
There is only one team in Europe that really stands out as improving, and one team that have really lost places. Here's the summary of what happened:
1. Armenia: +45 places following their two victories. They're up to 60th, and only just behind Scotland. This is their highest ever FIFA ranking!
2. Russia: +15 places thanks to their defeats of Israel and Macedonia. Up to 10th!
3. Montenegro: Montenegro: +14 places to 26th. They did fantastically well in group G, having defeated all their opponents except England. Once England have played against Wales then they should be equal top of the group.
4. Azerbaijan: They defeated Turkey, and so deserve an 11 place improvement to 91st. Turkey, meanwhile, fall 8 places to 29th, as they gained no points over the qualifiers.
5. France and Italy: France finally start to rise in rank again. They've stopped losing, and that's helping change their average points back where they should be. Italy have dropped points after a draw with Northern Ireland, and the abandoned match gives no points.
6. Greece: This team seems attached to twelfth. They have not moved at all since I started keeping track of the ranks, and the last time they changed position was in June when they came up one place from thirteenth.
7. Scotland: They were the UK's second team, but luck for Northern Ireland has lost the Scots position. It's entirely unfair for them to be drawn against Spain, and they played a good game. But playing well doesn't count for any points, so they remain third in the UK (fourth including Ireland).
8. Wales: At least Scotland aren't Wales, who finally start losing position. They're down into the 100s now, having lost 20 places to go 105th.
9. Israel: They've gone down 20 places as well. Israel have strange form, sometimes being better and sometimes worse. Their home league isn't that bad, so it's hard to know what's up internationally.
10. Cyprus: Who knows what is happening with Cyprus? They drew 4-4 with Portugal, but now have such bad form they drop 45 places to 88th! Their performance is even less understandable than Israel's.
11. Central African Republic: Not a European team, which is why I saved them till last. I predicted they'd rise, but not by this much! Sixty places up to 112th makes them the fastest-rising team in the world. Fellow Africans Niger also rose well, with 54 places, to go 100th.
There is only one team in Europe that really stands out as improving, and one team that have really lost places. Here's the summary of what happened:
1. Armenia: +45 places following their two victories. They're up to 60th, and only just behind Scotland. This is their highest ever FIFA ranking!
2. Russia: +15 places thanks to their defeats of Israel and Macedonia. Up to 10th!
3. Montenegro: Montenegro: +14 places to 26th. They did fantastically well in group G, having defeated all their opponents except England. Once England have played against Wales then they should be equal top of the group.
4. Azerbaijan: They defeated Turkey, and so deserve an 11 place improvement to 91st. Turkey, meanwhile, fall 8 places to 29th, as they gained no points over the qualifiers.
5. France and Italy: France finally start to rise in rank again. They've stopped losing, and that's helping change their average points back where they should be. Italy have dropped points after a draw with Northern Ireland, and the abandoned match gives no points.
6. Greece: This team seems attached to twelfth. They have not moved at all since I started keeping track of the ranks, and the last time they changed position was in June when they came up one place from thirteenth.
7. Scotland: They were the UK's second team, but luck for Northern Ireland has lost the Scots position. It's entirely unfair for them to be drawn against Spain, and they played a good game. But playing well doesn't count for any points, so they remain third in the UK (fourth including Ireland).
8. Wales: At least Scotland aren't Wales, who finally start losing position. They're down into the 100s now, having lost 20 places to go 105th.
9. Israel: They've gone down 20 places as well. Israel have strange form, sometimes being better and sometimes worse. Their home league isn't that bad, so it's hard to know what's up internationally.
10. Cyprus: Who knows what is happening with Cyprus? They drew 4-4 with Portugal, but now have such bad form they drop 45 places to 88th! Their performance is even less understandable than Israel's.
11. Central African Republic: Not a European team, which is why I saved them till last. I predicted they'd rise, but not by this much! Sixty places up to 112th makes them the fastest-rising team in the world. Fellow Africans Niger also rose well, with 54 places, to go 100th.
13/10/2010
Euro 2012 Qualification: Italy vs Serbia
There are worse fans than the English
Italy vs Serbia was a fiasco, with Serbian fans causing havoc by throwing flares on the pitch and lighting fireworks. The Scottish referee Chris Thomson had to abandon the match after just six minutes, and that was after a 40 minute delay before kickoff.
Here's how the FIFA rules go about abandoning matches:
Under the section about 'authority of the referee' and his 'powers and duties':
“The referee: … stops, suspends or abandons the match because of outside interference of any kind”
FIFA rules about abandoned matches: “An abandoned match is replayed unless the competition rules provide otherwise.”
UEFA rules about abandoned matches in the Euro Cup: “Si un match est arrêté avant la fin de la durée réglementaire de la rencontre ou lors d’une éventuelle prolongation en raison de l'état du terrain ou pour d’autres raisons, il doit être rejoué intégralement le lendemain ou à une autre date convenue par l’association organisatrice et l’association visiteuse, sous réserve de l’approbation de l’Administration de l’UEFA. Un accord correspondant doit intervenir dans les deux heures qui suivent la décision de l’arbitre d’annuler le match. En cas de désaccord, l’Administration de l’UEFA fixe la date et l’heure du coup d’envoi du match. Sa décision est définitive.”
As best I can translate it in my poor French (and with Google's help): “If a match is stopped before the end of normal time or any extra time during the meeting due to ground conditions or for any other reason, it must be replayed in full the next day or on another convenient date for the organising [home team] association and the visiting [away team] association, subject to approval by the UEFA administration. An agreement must occur within the two hours that follow the arbiter's [in this case, the referee's] decision to cancel the match. In case of disagreement, the UEFA administration will fix the date and time of the match's kickoff. Their decision is final.”
From the official UEFA website: “UEFA now awaits the receipt of the official UEFA delegate's match report before deciding whether to open a disciplinary case.”
The match could be reorganised, or Italy could simply be awarded a 3-0 win by UEFA.
Italy vs Serbia was a fiasco, with Serbian fans causing havoc by throwing flares on the pitch and lighting fireworks. The Scottish referee Chris Thomson had to abandon the match after just six minutes, and that was after a 40 minute delay before kickoff.
Here's how the FIFA rules go about abandoning matches:
Under the section about 'authority of the referee' and his 'powers and duties':
“The referee: … stops, suspends or abandons the match because of outside interference of any kind”
FIFA rules about abandoned matches: “An abandoned match is replayed unless the competition rules provide otherwise.”
UEFA rules about abandoned matches in the Euro Cup: “Si un match est arrêté avant la fin de la durée réglementaire de la rencontre ou lors d’une éventuelle prolongation en raison de l'état du terrain ou pour d’autres raisons, il doit être rejoué intégralement le lendemain ou à une autre date convenue par l’association organisatrice et l’association visiteuse, sous réserve de l’approbation de l’Administration de l’UEFA. Un accord correspondant doit intervenir dans les deux heures qui suivent la décision de l’arbitre d’annuler le match. En cas de désaccord, l’Administration de l’UEFA fixe la date et l’heure du coup d’envoi du match. Sa décision est définitive.”
As best I can translate it in my poor French (and with Google's help): “If a match is stopped before the end of normal time or any extra time during the meeting due to ground conditions or for any other reason, it must be replayed in full the next day or on another convenient date for the organising [home team] association and the visiting [away team] association, subject to approval by the UEFA administration. An agreement must occur within the two hours that follow the arbiter's [in this case, the referee's] decision to cancel the match. In case of disagreement, the UEFA administration will fix the date and time of the match's kickoff. Their decision is final.”
From the official UEFA website: “UEFA now awaits the receipt of the official UEFA delegate's match report before deciding whether to open a disciplinary case.”
The match could be reorganised, or Italy could simply be awarded a 3-0 win by UEFA.
17/09/2010
FIFA/Coca-Cola Rankings Adjustment September 2010
So what about those FIFA/Coca-Cola rankings, then? Well, there have been some big changes in the European teams, with several huge shifts upwards or downwards. Most shockingly, Scotland – despite a draw and a win – have lost their position as the UK's second (and the British Isles' third) team. That place is now taken up by Northern Ireland, who managed a 14 place shift upwards to 45th, while Scotland drifted downwards to 47th.
The largest jump was from Montenegro, who are in group G with England, Wales, Bulgaria and Switzerland. Their shock victory over a very poor Bulgaria (perhaps shaken over their 4-0 defeat by England) gave them a 33 place rise to 40th in the world! Bulgaria, however, have dropped 11 places to 54th, and also lost their coach, who resigned after the bad weekend.
Another notable improvements is Cyprus, thanks to their draw with Portugal. The Cyprians go up from 63 to 43 – 20 places! Portugal hold their position in 8th. Also, the defeaters of France – Belarus – went up 23 places to 55th, while France (despite beating Bosnia-Herzegovina) drop six places to 27th.
Finally, and just for amusement, Andorra and San Marino both dropped a place (Andorra have 2 points, San Marino have 0), thanks to the Central African Republic drawing with Morocco 0-0. This gave them 30 points, and I would not be surprised if it was treated like a victory.
The largest jump was from Montenegro, who are in group G with England, Wales, Bulgaria and Switzerland. Their shock victory over a very poor Bulgaria (perhaps shaken over their 4-0 defeat by England) gave them a 33 place rise to 40th in the world! Bulgaria, however, have dropped 11 places to 54th, and also lost their coach, who resigned after the bad weekend.
Another notable improvements is Cyprus, thanks to their draw with Portugal. The Cyprians go up from 63 to 43 – 20 places! Portugal hold their position in 8th. Also, the defeaters of France – Belarus – went up 23 places to 55th, while France (despite beating Bosnia-Herzegovina) drop six places to 27th.
Finally, and just for amusement, Andorra and San Marino both dropped a place (Andorra have 2 points, San Marino have 0), thanks to the Central African Republic drawing with Morocco 0-0. This gave them 30 points, and I would not be surprised if it was treated like a victory.
29/08/2010
FIFA/Coca-Cola Rankings Adjustment
Since the last World Cup, FIFA have adjusted the weightings that they give to international games for the next for years. European games still get a C (confederation strength) value of 1.00, but now South American games also get 1.00. North American, Central American and Caribbean teams each get a 0.88 weighting (up from 0.86), African teams get 0.86 (up from 0.85), and Asian and Oceanian teams remain at 0.85.
15/07/2010
FIFA/Coca-Cola World Rankings July 2010
The rankings have been adjusted, and Spain are the best football team in the World. Now that you know how it's all worked out, let's look at how the World Cup has affected the international standings of the teams. There've been some big movers – up and down. Surprisingly, England have maintained their good position, but that's probably thanks to several other teams losing out – and their great qualifiers for the cup.
The fastest risers
The top three World Cup teams to rise in the rankings are:
The fastest risers
The top three World Cup teams to rise in the rankings are:
- New Zealand. They rose 24 places from 78 to 54. They are, in fact, the most improved team worldwide since May.
- South Africa. Since France had such a good world ranking (9) their defeat of the team shot them up 17 places from 83 to 66, although they are still the second-worst team in the competition (ahead of North Korea).
- Paraguay. Escaping from the group stages and beating Italy lifts them 15 places from 31 to a comfortable 16.
- Cameroon. The Africans failed to live up to expectations by losing badly. They dropped a massive 21 places from 19 to 40.
- France. Unsurprisingly, the World Cup finalists from 2006 lost a lot of points from their defeat by South Africa. They dropped 12 places from 9 to 21.
- Nigeria. They tried, but they still fell from 21 to 30.
- Italy only dropped six places, from 5 to 11.
- England rose a place, from 8 to 7.
- North Korea went up two places, from 105 to 103.
- Portugal dropped 5 places from 3 to 8, probably caused by other teams rising rather than their falling (although North Korea's terrible ranking wouldn't have given them many points from that game)
World Ranking Calculation
The World Cup is over, and the world rankings have been readjusted as of yesterday (14th July). Unsurprisingly, Spain are top of the rankings with 1883 points. But how are the points calculated? FIFA has a simple formula based on several factors:
1 – Whether the match was won or drawn (M. The usual values apply – 3, 1, or 0. If the match is won in penalties, the winning team gets 2 points, and the losing team gets 1.
2 – The importance of the match (I)
Friendly: 1.0 points
World cup/continental qualifier: 2.5 points
Continental finals (eg: Euro) or FIFA confederations cup: 3.0 points
World Cup finals: 4.0 points
3 – The strength of the opponent (T)
Calculated by the following formula: [200 – position of opponent]/100 taken from the most recent FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking.
Any team ranked below 150th gets an automatic rating of 0.5
4 – The continental confederation factor of the opposing team(C)
UEFA: 1.00
CONMEBOL: 0.98
CONCACAF: 0.85
AFC: 0.85
CAF: 0.85
OFC: 0.85
Then the final points are calculated as P = M*I*T*C*100
The maximum possible points from a World Cup match is 2,400.
Let's look at the World Cup final to show how this works.
Spain beat Netherlands outside of penalties, so for Spain, M=3. For Netherlands, it's equal to 0 so they get no points from the final.
The importance of the match is I=4.
The strength of Spain's opponent (Netherlands) = [200 – 4]/100 = T=1.96
And there's a continental confederation factor of C=1.00, as both teams are in Europe.
So in total, Spain's points from the World Cup final are:
P = 3*4*1.96*1*100 = 2352
That's only 48 points from the most you can achieve in a game!
Obviously, the actual FIFA ranking isn't calculated only from the last game a team played. If that were the case, Netherlands wouldn't have any points! Instead, and I'm not clear exactly how this works, the matches over the past four years are taken into account. Games in the last year are worth 100% of their points, 50% for those 1-2 years ago, 30% for those 2-3 years ago, and 20% for those 3-4 years ago.
(Source: Fifa.com This is a PDF so make sure you have Adobe Acrobat reader. It's free, so I'm not making them any money by telling you this.)
1 – Whether the match was won or drawn (M. The usual values apply – 3, 1, or 0. If the match is won in penalties, the winning team gets 2 points, and the losing team gets 1.
2 – The importance of the match (I)
Friendly: 1.0 points
World cup/continental qualifier: 2.5 points
Continental finals (eg: Euro) or FIFA confederations cup: 3.0 points
World Cup finals: 4.0 points
3 – The strength of the opponent (T)
Calculated by the following formula: [200 – position of opponent]/100 taken from the most recent FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking.
Any team ranked below 150th gets an automatic rating of 0.5
4 – The continental confederation factor of the opposing team(C)
UEFA: 1.00
CONMEBOL: 0.98
CONCACAF: 0.85
AFC: 0.85
CAF: 0.85
OFC: 0.85
Then the final points are calculated as P = M*I*T*C*100
The maximum possible points from a World Cup match is 2,400.
Let's look at the World Cup final to show how this works.
Spain beat Netherlands outside of penalties, so for Spain, M=3. For Netherlands, it's equal to 0 so they get no points from the final.
The importance of the match is I=4.
The strength of Spain's opponent (Netherlands) = [200 – 4]/100 = T=1.96
And there's a continental confederation factor of C=1.00, as both teams are in Europe.
So in total, Spain's points from the World Cup final are:
That's only 48 points from the most you can achieve in a game!
Obviously, the actual FIFA ranking isn't calculated only from the last game a team played. If that were the case, Netherlands wouldn't have any points! Instead, and I'm not clear exactly how this works, the matches over the past four years are taken into account. Games in the last year are worth 100% of their points, 50% for those 1-2 years ago, 30% for those 2-3 years ago, and 20% for those 3-4 years ago.
(Source: Fifa.com This is a PDF so make sure you have Adobe Acrobat reader. It's free, so I'm not making them any money by telling you this.)
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