08/11/2010

Formula 1 Championship part two

Hamilton must win. Vettel must come first or second. Webber must come fifth or above. Even then, they still depend on other results:
Alonso is guaranteed the championship if he comes first or second. If he comes third or fourth, he will get the championship if Webber does not win. If he comes fifth it gets complicated. A victory for Vettel and a second for Webber here puts them on equal points. Webber will have one less win, but Alonso and Vettel will share the number of first, second and third places. Vettel, with one more fourth place, will win the championship.
However, Red Bull have been consistent in 2010. Vettel first and Webber second in qualifying is almost guaranteed. If they finish the race like this, we could see Vettel get the championship despite never having actually led it during the year. That would be a novelty!

Here, then, is Red Bull's race strategy should they be in first and second: if Alonso is third or fourth, Webber should be first; if Alonso is fifth or below, the two drivers can fight it out. Personally, though, I'd like to see Vettel in front with Alonso fifth.

So Jake Humphrey, that's your figures all done for you. It's also Christian Horner's race strategy all sorted. I'd love to see a situation where Alonso goes from fifth to fourth for whatever reason, and the Red Bulls have to switch places. They've fought all the way to the end of the season, which was great, but if they want that win they'll have to play it as a team.
Interestingly, Alonso will come second in this strategy should he finish third or fourth, or fifth with Vettel winning.

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