The Quarter Finals: Continental Drift

Now we're up to the final eight teams in the competition. They come from three continents, but how does this compare to previous competitions? We were only ever going to get three European teams through, as a twist of fate meant they ended up playing each other instead of nations from other continents.

Continent	1998	2002	2006	2010
Africa	0	1	0	1
Asia	0	1	0	0
Australasia	0	0	0	0
Europe	6	4	6	3
North/Central America0		1	0	0
South America	2	1	2	4

The perceived European dominance of football has been severely dented this year – only three sides made it from here, and most of the teams come from South America. In previous years, there was a European dominance, with maybe a couple of teams from South America. Even in 2002, Europe had more representation, and the other teams came from a wide spread of continents.
There has never been a World Cup winner outside of Europe or South America, and it looks like that will continue this year. Only Paraguay of the South American teams remaining has not won a cup, but only Germany from the European sides has done so. So it is possible that we may get a new World Cup winner this year – I'm supporting Spain.

The Quarter Finals: Odds

Eight teams have been eliminated from the competition, and eight remain. Obviously, the bookies have now had to revise their odds. In comparison to last time, the odds have changed a bit. The change (+ if you get more back, - if you get less back) is shown after the odds. Let's take a look at the teams. As before, the odds are bet365.com, Ladbrookes, William Hill (10.00am 1/7/2010):

1-Brazil. Brazil are, unsurprisingly, still top. They easily took care of Chile. They're up against Netherlands/Holland next, who are also a good side. (12-5, 9-4, 5-2 -)
2-Spain. Viva la Espana! They managed to beat Portugal, and now face Paraguay. Not too hard for the Euro Champions. (11-4, 3-1, 11-4 -)
4-Netherlands. Now the third-best in the competition, but they face Brazil next. Can they do it? (7-1, 7-1, 7-1 +)
6-Germany. Germany easily beat a terrible England team. They play Argentina next, who are another fantastic, England-beating side. (7-1, 6-1, 13-2 -)
7-Argentina. And Argentina are just below Germany in the rankings. Both countries have won cups before, so there's pressure at home for more. (4-1, 7-2, 9-2 -)
16-Uruguay. They face Ghana next, and have done well so far in the competition. They are the third of four South American sides still in the competition! (14-1, 14-1, 16-1 -)
31-Paraguay. Paraguay face Spain. They're a long way down, but can David beat Goliath this time? (40-1, 40-1, 50-1 +)
32-Ghana. The last African nation left. They have a nation upholding them, but they're playing Uruguay. (33-1, 33-1, 40-1 -)

The biggest changes were with Ghana (decreasing) and Paraguay (increasing). Paraguay have taken Slovakia's place as outsiders.

Day Twenty-two preview: 2/6/2010

It's time for the first two quarter-final matches. Brazil vs Netherlands are first, and then Uruguay vs Ghana. Let's compare the teams.

Brazil vs Netherlands
Two strong teams here. Brazil are first in the world, Netherlands are fourth. It will be a close game, but Brazil just edge this one out.
In their nine previous matches, Brazil have won three, Netherlands have won two, and four have been drawn. I'd say this one's a tie.
As for previous World Cup ability, Brazil won in 1998 which gives them the point. Some Brazillian players who were in that game are still on the team now!
Finally, group stage performance. Brazil have a 2-1-0 record, but Netherlands have a 3-0-0 record. So the final point goes to Netherlands.

This means it's a close match, with Brazil having a slight advantage.

Uruguay vs Ghana
Uruguay and Ghana are some of the weaker teams in the competition. Uruguay are 16th in the world, and Ghana are 32nd. That's a difference of 16 places. So Uruguay win this point.
In their only previous game, it came out as a draw, so this one's also a tie.
In the last four World Cups, Uruguay only qualified in 2002, when they went out in the group stages. Ghana qualified for their first World Cup in 2006, but made it to the final sixteen. This point goes to the Africans.
As for group stage performance, Uruguay have a 2-1-0 record, while Ghana are 1-1-1. So Uruguay get the final point.

Once again, the stats say it could be close.

My predictions: Netherlands and Uruguay. I would love Ghana to get through, and be the best African nation of all time, but I don't think they will win. As for Brazil/Netherlands, I think the Dutchmen will edge it out of desperation.

Day Nineteen: 29/6/2010

Penalties prove me wrong, but Spain win!

After a rather disappointing game ending in 0-0 after extra time between Paraguay and Japan, we finally saw our first penalty shoot out of the World Cup. After one of the Japanese players hit the crossbar, Paraguay were able to complete their penalties and make it through to face an Iberian side.

Meanwhile, Spain received their first card of the tournament, destroying their clean record. But it was worse for Portugal, who saw a player sent off. Although they won't continue in the tournament, a sending-off means that the player will have to miss his country's next international game. Spain won deservedly, going 1-0 up in the second half thanks to another goal from Villa. He's one of the top scorers this competition, along with Slovakia's Vittek and Argentina's Higuain.

Spain also broke Portugal's clean sheet for the tournament, and they are still the cleanest-playing team, with only one card.

There are no more games until July 2nd, so over the next few days when I'm not busy, there'll be a few stats posts about the cup coming out.

Goals per game: Mean – 2.19, Median – 2.5, Mode – 2, Range – 7
Cards per game: Mean – 3.91, Median – 5, Mode – 5, Range - 10

Day Nineteen preview: 29/6/2010

Today we have the final two games of the last 16. There's an Iberian battle of epic proportions, and the craziest country in the world take on Paraguay.

Paraguay vs Japan

In terms of ranking, Paraguay are 31st in the FIFA/Coca-Cola rankings, and Japan are 45th. Point one to Paraguay.
The teams have faced each other seven times, drawing five of those times, and Paraguay winning the other two. Point two to Paraguay.
Japan have failed to make it to the 1994 World Cup, and made it to the final 16 on home turf in 2002. Otherwise they have only faced the group stages. Paraguay also failed to qualify for the 1994 World Cup, and have otherwise had three final 16 knockouts, and one group stage knockout. Point three to Paraguay.
In this World Cup, Japan have a 2-0-1 group stage record, while Paraguay have a 1-2-0 record. Point four to Japan (for two wins against one).

So Paraguay are winners by the stats. But it's close, especially as the teams are both low-ranked.


Spain vs Portugal

Spain are ranked 2nd in the world. Portugal are third. Point one to Spain.
In their 33 matches, Spain have won 15, drawn 13 and only lost 3. Point two to Spain.
In the World Cups from 1994-2006, Spain have made it to two quarter-finals, one final-16s and one group stage. Portugal did not even qualify for 1994 or 1998, went out in the group stages once, and came fourth in 2006. So point three to Spain.
In the Euro Cups from 1992-2008, Portugal made it to the final once, the semi-final once, and the quarter-finals twice (but did not qualify in 1992). Spain were champions in 2008, but otherwise have had two quarter-finals and one group stage (also failing in 1992). Point four to Portugal.
Just by this World Cup, Spain have a 2-0-1 record to Portugal's 1-2-0, which gives point five to Spain.

Spain have the advantage, especially in recent years (winning Euro 2008 when Portugal went out in the quarter-finals), so they are likely to win.

Day Eighteen: 28/6/2010 (again)

Brazil and Netherlands up to standard

Is there any surprise today? Just as yesterday, the teams live up to expectations as Netherlands beat Slovakia 2-1 (Slovakia's final goal came from a penalty), and Brazil beat Chile. Slovakia's goalscorer Vittek now has 4 goals, which matches Argentina's Higuain's amount. But with Slovakia out, Higuain just has to score once to go top.

Goals per game: Mean – 2.28, Median – 2, Mode – 2, Range - 7
Cards per game: Mean – 3.94, Median – 4, Mode – 5, Range – 10

Predictions for tomorrow: Japan to beat Paraguay, Spain to beat Portugal.

Day Eighteen: 28/6/2010

Note: I'm graduating tomorrow from university so I may have trouble posting on time with family around, but I'll try!

Netherlands vs Slovakia, Brazil vs Chile

Really, do I need to give the statistics for these games? I will anyway, but just looking at the teams gives you the answers as to which side seems dominant.

Netherlands vs Slovakia, incidentally, is the second of three Europe-on-Europe games in the knockout stages. The other teams from around the world will not be playing European teams again until the next round. At least we know for sure, three European sides will make it to the quarter-finals.

Netherlands are ranked 4th, and Slovakia are ranked 34th. This is a 30-place difference! So point one to Netherlands.
Their only game against Slovakia resulted in a draw, so no points given.
Since this is Slovakia's first World Cup, the Netherlands win point three automatically.
And in terms of this cup, Netherlands have a 3-0-0 record, while Slovakia have a 1-1-1 record. Point four to Netherlands.

So the stats say Netherlands will win.


Brazil vs Chile is South America on South America. Brazil have the reputation, but Chile are like a second division side taking on the Premier League champions - going for it with all they've got!

Brazil are ranked first. This gives them point one without even looking at Chile, who are ranked 18th.
In the competitive record, these teams have met 71 times. Chile have won 8, drawn 13 and lost 50, with 57 goals for and 159 goals against! Point two to Brazil.
From 1994-2010, Brazil have qualified for every World Cup and even won it! Chile have only qualified twice - being banned in 1994, and making the final 16 in 1998. So point three to Brazil.
And finally, in this World Cup, Brazil have a 2-1-0 record in the group stages, while Chile have a 2-0-1 record. Point four to Brazil.

All the same, I'd like to see the little guys win for a change.

Day Seventeen: 27/6/2010

The stats prove true

But let's hope not for the entire knockout rounds. Germany beat England after one of the England goals was disallowed despite being over the line. More calls have gone out for Sepp Blatter to change FIFA's stance on technology – he was the trending topic on Twitter, along with the ref of that game. Admittedly, Germany were the better team. The last Italian has now left the competition with a little more dignity than the others! FA – we'd like to keep Fabio please. He's nice.

Argentina also played fantastically against Mexico, who were no match for Maradona's team. Higuain got his fourth goal of the tournament, which once again puts him the top goalscorer. If Argentina keep up their performance, they could win the cup, and Higuain could well get the Adidas golden boot.

There has been an incredible increase in the number of goals scored per game. Just in the knockout stages, the average has been 3.75 goals per game! There's clearly a great desire to win, and sometimes the competition just hasn't met up to expectations (England).

Nor have the referees. Linesman Mauricio Espinosa was the one who declared Lampard's goal to not be a goal, but the referee Jorge Larrionda has now made two mistakes in this cup, having also not called a handball in the Australia-Serbia game that would have given Serbia a penalty and maybe put them through.

The only Englishman left in the competition is Howard WEBB, the referee, who has had a good performance so far. I hope he gets the final, but if Germany gets through then that probably won't be such a good idea.

Goals per game: Mean – 2.25, Median – 2, Mode – 2, Range – 7
Cards per game: Mean – 3.9, Median – 4, Mode – 5, Range – 10

Predictions for tomorrow: Netherlands have the experience, but Slovakia beat Italy. It's hard to call, but I'm going to risk it and go for the Slovaks. Well, I have to get one wrong! Brazil are definitely going to beat Chile, despite the fact that one of the Chilleans is called Isla.

Formula 1 Race Nine: Race

Lotus had their 500th race today, which is a fantastic achievement despite their poor position in the tables. They almost had the first retirement of the race when Trulli had gearbox trouble, but they were able to get him working again, although he fell far behind the rest. Instead, they ended up with the second retirement, for Kovalainen.

There was a terrible accident, as Webber went over the back of Kovalainen! Webber's car was destroyed, but he was able to get out of the car, but it's his first retirement of the season.

Michael Schumacher started low on the grid, and while the safety car was out for Webber, went into the pits. Coming out of the pits, he had to wait while all the other cars went past, and ended up second-last. This wasn't a good race for the former world champion, but he did get some fast laps in later. It wasn't so bad for Jenson Button and most of the other drivers that were in the right position during the accident, as they were all able to filter into the pits and get their mandatory tyre change out of the way.

Before the safety car, Alonso had set the fastest lap: 1.42.566, but afterwards he and Massa ended up losing out, falling far back in the field. Alonso ended up ninth.

Japanese Kobayashi showed some great driving skills. He didn't pit until the end of the 54th lap, when he went down from third to ninth, then retook Alonso and Buemi on the final lap, thanks to his fresh tyres! He only qualified 18th, so this is a fantastic race for him.

Lewis Hamilton went under investigation for overtaking the safety car – Alonso ended up stuck behind the safety car while Hamilton was ahead. He ended up with a drive-through penalty, and took it just managing to stay ahead of Kobayashi and Button. He ended up second, which he will keep despite other drivers being under investigation at the end of the race.

Schumacher on fresh tyres after a third pit stop was the first driver to dip under 1.40.000, from way back down in 17th place.

Cars 1, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15, 16 and 22 are all set to be investigated after the race due to possible safety-car infringement. That's Button, Barrichello, Hulkenberg, Kubica, Petrov, Sutil, Liuzzi, Buemi and De La Rosa! The question is: if they did infringe the rules, what will the punishment be? Alonso could see himself boosted quite a way up if they are forced to lose time or positions. Hulkenberg went out on lap 51 with car problems thanks to a bust tyre and bodywork damage, amongst other things, so the punishment can't really affect him.

1.VETTEL, 2. HAMILTON, 3. BUTTON.

A German-British-British podium, but with drivers still to be investigated, who knows how the results will end up? And will this have any bearing on the football?

Fastest lap: Button: 1.38.766 (lap 54)

I'll be back on the F1 trail for race 10 at Silverstone.

Day Seventeen preview: 27/6/2010

Germany vs England, Argentina vs Mexico

I hate to do this, but I will take a hard look at the facts.

Germany are 6, England are 8 in the FIFA/Coca-Cola World Rankings. It's a small difference, but gives point one to Germany.
In their most recent confrontations – 2000-2010 only – there have been five games played. England won three, Germany two. Overall, England have won 12 games in normal time, Germans 10 with 5 draws, of which Germany won two because they were knockout games, so in normal play England also have the advantage. So point two goes to England.
From 1994-2006, Germany have always gone to the quarter finals, came second in 2002, and third in 2006. England missed out on the 1994 World Cup, and have otherwise done reasonably but not brilliantly. Point three to Germany.
In the European Championship from 1992-2008, Germany were champions in 1996 (with England as hosts), and were runners-up twice, but only made the first round in 2000 and 2004. England made the semi-final in 1996, and the quarter-final in 2004, but failed to qualify last time. Point four to Germany.
And in terms of group-stage performance, Germany have a 2-0-1 record, while England have a 1-2-0 record. Therefore they are on equal standings in this cup.

So the statistics say Germany will probably win, but England have determination on their side, and a longer starvation from victories. We also have an older, more experienced squad, with some of Germany's best players not in this competition.



For Argentina and Mexico, Argentina are ranked 7th while Mexico are 17th. This puts point one to Argentina.
In their confrontations they have played 26 games, with Argentina winning 11, drawing 11 and only losing 4. This puts point two easily to Argentina.
As well as having two World Cup victories, Argentina are also led by Diego Maradona, who won one of those cups. But in more recent years they have not made it past the quarter-finals. Mexico have not made it past the final 16, and only reached the quarter-finals when they hosted the competition. Point three to Argentina.
And in this World Cup, Argentina have a group stage record of 3 wins, while Mexico are on 1-1-1. Point four solidly to Argentina.

So Argentina have the best chance of winning!