Africa win!
The USA played Ghana in the second match of the day. Ghana got an early lead just squeaking into the net, but gave away a penalty in the second half that brought the USA level.
After 90 minutes the score was level, and the game fell into extra time. Ghana scored quickly in the first half of extra time, and kept the Americans away. It was incredible how Tim Howard, in total desperation, came up to help his team. But in the end Ghana won for Africa, and America's love-affair with soccer has ended for another World Cup.
I am disappointed by the American's loss, but am hopeful for tomorrow. England play Germany, and we have to represent Group C heading towards the final. USA – on our side now?
It seems the number of goals per game is increasing dramatically as we enter the knockout stages.
Predictions: England, obviously, and Argentina.
Goals per game: Mean - 2.14, Median - 2, Mode - 2, Range - 7
Cards per game: Mean - 4, Median - 4, Mode - 5, Range - 10
26/06/2010
Formula 1 Race Nine: Qualifying
Yes, I'm expanding! I'm no longer just focusing on the World Cup (although of course I will for the next couple of weeks until it has ended), and moving into other sports, such as Formula 1.
Today was the qualifying for the ninth race of the Formula 1 season: the European Grand Prix, in Valencia. It's the second race to take place in Spain.
The top qualifiers were the Red Bulls, with Sebastian Vettel taking his fourth pole position. Along with his team mate Mark Webber, he's the best qualifier of the year – both have an average qualifying position of second place. However, Vettel comes ahead of Webber thanks to never dropping below third in qualifying.
As expected, the worst qualifiers are the six in the new teams. Worst is Indian Karun Chandhok, followed by his team mate Bruno Senna. The final four positions have almost always been shared between these two, DiGrassi and Timo Glock – DiGrassi qualified before his teammate for the first time today. Glock is the only one to have pulled out of the final four positions, once under his own steam and once – in the Malaysian grand prix – thanks to mistakes by some of the top runners, when he got into Q2.
Looking into the race tomorrow, who will win? A lot of F1 depends on qualifying, and the rest – especially in tracks where it's hard to overtake – depends on luck. Well, Webber is the only driver to have always had points. Rosberg, Massa, Kubica, Hamilton, Button and Alonso have each missed out on points only once. Alonso is looking for a home win, while Maclaren are looking for another 1-2 to cement their lead.
At the other end of the table, several drivers have retired in almost all races. Trulli, Senna, Kobayashi, Glock and De La Rosa have each had problems in six races. But it's half way through the season, so cars have been improved.
Will we see points for any of the new teams? Perhaps. They need to work hard to be able to survive and make it into a second year of Formula 1. This sport is far too risky to make winner predictions, but I will say that Algesuari will come around 11th. He's very consistent in his performance, and has never retired.
Today was the qualifying for the ninth race of the Formula 1 season: the European Grand Prix, in Valencia. It's the second race to take place in Spain.
The top qualifiers were the Red Bulls, with Sebastian Vettel taking his fourth pole position. Along with his team mate Mark Webber, he's the best qualifier of the year – both have an average qualifying position of second place. However, Vettel comes ahead of Webber thanks to never dropping below third in qualifying.
As expected, the worst qualifiers are the six in the new teams. Worst is Indian Karun Chandhok, followed by his team mate Bruno Senna. The final four positions have almost always been shared between these two, DiGrassi and Timo Glock – DiGrassi qualified before his teammate for the first time today. Glock is the only one to have pulled out of the final four positions, once under his own steam and once – in the Malaysian grand prix – thanks to mistakes by some of the top runners, when he got into Q2.
Looking into the race tomorrow, who will win? A lot of F1 depends on qualifying, and the rest – especially in tracks where it's hard to overtake – depends on luck. Well, Webber is the only driver to have always had points. Rosberg, Massa, Kubica, Hamilton, Button and Alonso have each missed out on points only once. Alonso is looking for a home win, while Maclaren are looking for another 1-2 to cement their lead.
At the other end of the table, several drivers have retired in almost all races. Trulli, Senna, Kobayashi, Glock and De La Rosa have each had problems in six races. But it's half way through the season, so cars have been improved.
Will we see points for any of the new teams? Perhaps. They need to work hard to be able to survive and make it into a second year of Formula 1. This sport is far too risky to make winner predictions, but I will say that Algesuari will come around 11th. He's very consistent in his performance, and has never retired.
Day Sixteen part one: 26/6/2010
Uruguay's dry spell is over
Uruguay played South Korea in the first match of the day. It was raining all through the match, and coming down harder in the second half. The South Americans began well with an early goal, and were unfortunate to not be given a penalty from a Korean handball. Korea took the second-half by storm, however, and had the majority of the possession throughout the match. They eventually got a goal back, destroying Uruguay's clean sheet for the first time in the competition. Uruguay went 337 minutes without any team scoring against them.
Then Uruguay had a fantastically lucky goal that almost hit the post, giving Suarez his third goal in the competition, which puts him well into the Adidas golden boot competition. ITV and FIFA both agree it's one of the best goals so far. After holding on for 13 more minutes, the South Koreans were put out of the World Cup after a fantastic final 16 game.
Later: USA vs Ghana.
As evidenced by the change of title, I'm now branching out into other sports. Also to come: Formula 1 race 9 qualifying.
Uruguay played South Korea in the first match of the day. It was raining all through the match, and coming down harder in the second half. The South Americans began well with an early goal, and were unfortunate to not be given a penalty from a Korean handball. Korea took the second-half by storm, however, and had the majority of the possession throughout the match. They eventually got a goal back, destroying Uruguay's clean sheet for the first time in the competition. Uruguay went 337 minutes without any team scoring against them.
Then Uruguay had a fantastically lucky goal that almost hit the post, giving Suarez his third goal in the competition, which puts him well into the Adidas golden boot competition. ITV and FIFA both agree it's one of the best goals so far. After holding on for 13 more minutes, the South Koreans were put out of the World Cup after a fantastic final 16 game.
Later: USA vs Ghana.
As evidenced by the change of title, I'm now branching out into other sports. Also to come: Formula 1 race 9 qualifying.
Day Sixteen Preview: 26/6/2010
We have every qualifying continent but Europe represented today! Who will win? I predicted yesterday that Uruguay and USA will win. Do the stats bear this out?
Uruguay/South Korea
Ranked 16 in the FIFA/Coca-Cola World Rankings, Uruguay are far ahead of South Korea, who are only 47 – the worst-ranked team in the finals. Point one to Uruguay.
In their five confrontations, there was one draw, and Uruguay won the other four matches – most recently in 2007. Point two to Uruguay.
In the World Cups 1994-2010, Uruguay have only qualified twice, not making it out of the group stages in 2002, and failing to qualify in 1994, 1998 and 2006. South Korea, however, qualified for all five Cups, coming fourth in 2002, but mostly staying in the group stages. Point three to South Korea.
Comparing group performance just at this World Cup, Uruguay have a 2-1-0 record, while South Korea have a 1-1-1 record. Point four to Uruguay.
This suggests the South Americans will win.
USA/Ghana
Ranking: USA are 14, while Ghana are 32 in the FIFA/Coca-Cola World Rankings. Point one to USA.
In their only confrontation, at the 2006 World Cup, the USA were defeated 3-1 by Ghana. Point two to Ghana.
In the World Cups 1994-2010, the USA qualified each time, making it to the quarter-finals in 2002 and the final 16 in 1994. Ghana have only qualified in 2006 and 2010, but have made it to the final 16 each time. Point three, just about, to the USA.
By performance at this World Cup, USA have a 1-2-0 record, while Ghana have a 1-1-1 record. Point four to USA.
This suggests the USA will win.
Will my predictions bear out, or will the weight of Africa's support spur Ghana to victory? No teams have any extra disadvantages from disqualified players, so it's all down to the skill of the players.
Uruguay/South Korea
Ranked 16 in the FIFA/Coca-Cola World Rankings, Uruguay are far ahead of South Korea, who are only 47 – the worst-ranked team in the finals. Point one to Uruguay.
In their five confrontations, there was one draw, and Uruguay won the other four matches – most recently in 2007. Point two to Uruguay.
In the World Cups 1994-2010, Uruguay have only qualified twice, not making it out of the group stages in 2002, and failing to qualify in 1994, 1998 and 2006. South Korea, however, qualified for all five Cups, coming fourth in 2002, but mostly staying in the group stages. Point three to South Korea.
Comparing group performance just at this World Cup, Uruguay have a 2-1-0 record, while South Korea have a 1-1-1 record. Point four to Uruguay.
This suggests the South Americans will win.
USA/Ghana
Ranking: USA are 14, while Ghana are 32 in the FIFA/Coca-Cola World Rankings. Point one to USA.
In their only confrontation, at the 2006 World Cup, the USA were defeated 3-1 by Ghana. Point two to Ghana.
In the World Cups 1994-2010, the USA qualified each time, making it to the quarter-finals in 2002 and the final 16 in 1994. Ghana have only qualified in 2006 and 2010, but have made it to the final 16 each time. Point three, just about, to the USA.
By performance at this World Cup, USA have a 1-2-0 record, while Ghana have a 1-1-1 record. Point four to USA.
This suggests the USA will win.
Will my predictions bear out, or will the weight of Africa's support spur Ghana to victory? No teams have any extra disadvantages from disqualified players, so it's all down to the skill of the players.
The Final Sixteen: Continental Drift
Let's look at the continental composition of the final 16 for the last few World Cups 1998-2010:
This year, the number of European teams has been significantly reduced to six: Spain, Portugal, Netherlands, Germany, England and newcomers Slovakia. This is thanks to the elimination of Italy and France, as well as the poor performance of Sweden and Croatia, amongst others.
We also see the two Asian sides of Japan and South Korea qualifying just as they did in 2002 on home turf. However, the biggest surprise is that the South American teams are rebuilding their strength: Brazil and Argentina are through as expected, but also Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay.
Ghana are the one African team to make it, having also qualified last year, and the USA and Mexico are the other sides.
There is still a dominance from Europe and South America that suggests the World Cup will not be travelling to a new continent just yet.
| Continent | 1998 | 2002 | 2006 | 2010 |
| Africa | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Asia | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Australasia | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Europe | 10 | 9 | 10 | 6 |
| North/Central America | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| South America | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
This year, the number of European teams has been significantly reduced to six: Spain, Portugal, Netherlands, Germany, England and newcomers Slovakia. This is thanks to the elimination of Italy and France, as well as the poor performance of Sweden and Croatia, amongst others.
We also see the two Asian sides of Japan and South Korea qualifying just as they did in 2002 on home turf. However, the biggest surprise is that the South American teams are rebuilding their strength: Brazil and Argentina are through as expected, but also Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay.
Ghana are the one African team to make it, having also qualified last year, and the USA and Mexico are the other sides.
There is still a dominance from Europe and South America that suggests the World Cup will not be travelling to a new continent just yet.
The Final Sixteen: Odds
The number of teams in the World Cup has been split in two. Already, two World Cup winners are out: France and Italy. We are left with Brazil, Uruguay, Germany, Argentina and England as teams who have lifted the trophy (although Germany won as West Germany).
Unusually, few European teams have made it through; this year it is truly an international competition. Here are the teams and the different odds for each of them to win in order of FIFA/Coca-Cola World Rankings (from British betting agencies bet365.com, Ladbrookes and William Hill respectively on 25/6/2010 at 21:50*):
1-Brazil. They have won the cup 5 times already (2002, 1994, 1970, 1962 and 1958), and are the only team to have never missed a cup. (7-2, 7-2, 10-3) [Top in each place]
2-Spain. The highest-ranked team to have never won a World Cup. Also the cleanest-playing team in the cup. They won Euro 2008. (4-1, 5-1, 4-1) [Ladbrookes less sure of Spain]
3-Portugal. The betting companies rank Portugal lower than FIFA. Portugal were defeated by Greece in the final of Euro 2004, and face Spain next. (25-1, 22-1, 22-1)
4-Netherlands. The only team to have won all their matches so far. And they play in orange! Came 4th in 1998. (7-1, 6-1, 7-1) [Under 'Holland']
6-Germany. As Italy are out, Germany come next. They've won the cup several times as West Germany, and came close in previous years. But can they beat England? (11-1, 10-1, 12-1)
7-Argentina. They used to be good in World Cups and are led by Diego Maradona. But are they good enough? They came second in the 2007 Copa America. (9-2, 9-2, 9-2)
8-England. They last won in 1966, but have Fabio Capello at the helm. Will they be able to defeat their German rivals? (10-1, 10-1, 10-1)
14-USA. With so many teams above them out, the USA have a good chance. Their country is solidly behind them. (40-1, 33-1, 40-1) [But not the betting companies]
16-Uruguay. They hosted the first World Cup, but have done poorly in more-recent cups. Can they change things? (16-1, 16-1, 18-1)
17-Mexico. They made it to the last 16 in the last four World Cups. Their best result is the quarter-finals. (66-1, 66-1, 66-1) [Nobody really thinks they'll do it]
18-Chile. They scraped through after Spain, and they have a player called Isla, which is my name! But will that be enough? (40-1, 40-1, 66-1) [William Hill is doubtful]
31-Paraguay. It's a long way down the list to the next team. They're one of several South-American teams still around. (40-1, 28-1, 40-1)
32-Ghana. They're the only African team left in it. Will this be the first African team to win a World Cup? They're playing USA next! (50-1, 40-1, 50-1)
34-Slovakia. Their first ever World Cup! They've only been a team since 1993, and now they're in the last 16! (200-1, 80-1, 125-1) [The bets are against them, but they have a good ranking]
45-Japan. They have a lower ranking than Scotland, but they made it to the final 16. The last time was on home turf. (80-1, 80-1, 80-1)
47-Korean Republic (South Korea). A surprising good team in 2002. But was that just home support? (100-1, 50-1, 80-1) [bet365 has them second-last]
Who do you think will win? Luck has a lot to do with it, but so does skill. I hope England will win, but it's all down to Germany!
*Please note- I do not at all condone gambling. Bet at your own risk. You will probably lose your money! I linked to the tournament winner bets where possible to save you searching.
Unusually, few European teams have made it through; this year it is truly an international competition. Here are the teams and the different odds for each of them to win in order of FIFA/Coca-Cola World Rankings (from British betting agencies bet365.com, Ladbrookes and William Hill respectively on 25/6/2010 at 21:50*):
1-Brazil. They have won the cup 5 times already (2002, 1994, 1970, 1962 and 1958), and are the only team to have never missed a cup. (7-2, 7-2, 10-3) [Top in each place]
2-Spain. The highest-ranked team to have never won a World Cup. Also the cleanest-playing team in the cup. They won Euro 2008. (4-1, 5-1, 4-1) [Ladbrookes less sure of Spain]
3-Portugal. The betting companies rank Portugal lower than FIFA. Portugal were defeated by Greece in the final of Euro 2004, and face Spain next. (25-1, 22-1, 22-1)
4-Netherlands. The only team to have won all their matches so far. And they play in orange! Came 4th in 1998. (7-1, 6-1, 7-1) [Under 'Holland']
6-Germany. As Italy are out, Germany come next. They've won the cup several times as West Germany, and came close in previous years. But can they beat England? (11-1, 10-1, 12-1)
7-Argentina. They used to be good in World Cups and are led by Diego Maradona. But are they good enough? They came second in the 2007 Copa America. (9-2, 9-2, 9-2)
8-England. They last won in 1966, but have Fabio Capello at the helm. Will they be able to defeat their German rivals? (10-1, 10-1, 10-1)
14-USA. With so many teams above them out, the USA have a good chance. Their country is solidly behind them. (40-1, 33-1, 40-1) [But not the betting companies]
16-Uruguay. They hosted the first World Cup, but have done poorly in more-recent cups. Can they change things? (16-1, 16-1, 18-1)
17-Mexico. They made it to the last 16 in the last four World Cups. Their best result is the quarter-finals. (66-1, 66-1, 66-1) [Nobody really thinks they'll do it]
18-Chile. They scraped through after Spain, and they have a player called Isla, which is my name! But will that be enough? (40-1, 40-1, 66-1) [William Hill is doubtful]
31-Paraguay. It's a long way down the list to the next team. They're one of several South-American teams still around. (40-1, 28-1, 40-1)
32-Ghana. They're the only African team left in it. Will this be the first African team to win a World Cup? They're playing USA next! (50-1, 40-1, 50-1)
34-Slovakia. Their first ever World Cup! They've only been a team since 1993, and now they're in the last 16! (200-1, 80-1, 125-1) [The bets are against them, but they have a good ranking]
45-Japan. They have a lower ranking than Scotland, but they made it to the final 16. The last time was on home turf. (80-1, 80-1, 80-1)
47-Korean Republic (South Korea). A surprising good team in 2002. But was that just home support? (100-1, 50-1, 80-1) [bet365 has them second-last]
Who do you think will win? Luck has a lot to do with it, but so does skill. I hope England will win, but it's all down to Germany!
*Please note- I do not at all condone gambling. Bet at your own risk. You will probably lose your money! I linked to the tournament winner bets where possible to save you searching.
25/06/2010
Day Fifteen: 25/6/2010
Sven's team win as Chile boil
Well, a disappointing day for Ivory Coast, who played a great match against North Korea but were let down by a draw between Brazil and Portugal, keeping them out of the final sixteen. They were relying on Brazil defeating (and destroying) Portugal, while they did the same to North Korea. You have to be inspired by the North Korean goalkeeper R Myong Guk, who played on to the end of the game despite injuries to his hand and thigh.
This was the first clean game of the World Cup; referee Alberto UNDIANO, who previously had a terrible match with Germany and Serbia, had a change of form. By contrast, seven yellow cards were given out in the game between Brazil and Portugal, which was played poorly by both sides.
So for group G, my predictions come through, but I was glad that I chose to watch Ivory Coast/North Korea rather than Brazil/Portugal.
Interestingly, the Americans seem to be getting deep into this tournament. They're really passionate about their team this year. I think it's because of that 1-1 draw originally and Robert Green's mess-up. 11Points even did a live blog for the first time, following that USA-Algeria game that ended so spectacularly. I think now they understand why the rest of us love football. The sport has always had a minor follow there. The question is: will it increase?
Again, I think 11points puts it succinctly: the people might love it, but the TV networks won't because it doesn't allow for them to take time out in the middle of a half for commercial breaks. What can I say? TOUGH! ITV has managed for years. But at any rate, I think Americans will get behind their national team rather than the league teams. American teams don't often participate in international competitions, so it's fantastic to see the World Cup uniting the USA.
The second pair of games was group H's finale. I had correctly predicted Spain and Chile would go through. All Spain had to do was win to guarantee survival, or draw if the other game turned in Honduras's favour. With the dominance of South America, and the loss of several European teams, it was vital to stay in.
Honduras didn't have much of a chance, though. Losing today means they're the first team to go out of a World Cup without points or goals since Saudi Arabia and China in 2002. (Source: FIFA.com. Someone tell me where all this stupid info comes from!)
The first half went well, as Spain scored two goals, meaning Chile no longer have a goalless tournament. Worse was to come for the South Americans, as Chile gained four yellow cards – two to the same player, and two to players who will also miss out on the next match.
Spain went into the second half feeling like they had already won against 10-man Chile, but were soundly shaken by substitute Millar's goal. However, they can be comforted by the fact that the last player to score against Chile in a World Cup was Brazil's Ronaldo back in 1998 in the final 16, which Brazil won 4-1. At the end of the half, they found themselves kicking around the ball and maintaining the score, just relaxing and keeping things away from Chile.
Thanks to Spain's victory, they will now play European neighbours and rivals Portugal in the final 16. They are only the third team in World Cup history to win their group having lost their opening game – the other two are West Germany (1982) and Mexico (1994).
Chile have never won their group in the World Cup. In 1998 they had 0-3-0 and got through. The most they have managed is two wins – in 1930, 1962 and this year. Only three teams have lost the group stages despite winning two matches: Chile (1930), Yugoslavia (1950) and Algeria (1982) although in the first two cases only the group winners went through.
Goals per game: Mean – 2.1, Median – 2, Mode – 2, Range – 7
Cards per game: Mean – 4, Median – 4, Mode – 5, Range - 10
Tomorrow, Uruguay play South Korea and the USA play Ghana. My predictions are on Uruguay and USA to win. So far I've had 86% correct predictions (only Italy and Serbia have failed me so far) but don't use me to bet with! From tomorrow, I will be posting statistics before the games about previous clashes between the teams.
Well, a disappointing day for Ivory Coast, who played a great match against North Korea but were let down by a draw between Brazil and Portugal, keeping them out of the final sixteen. They were relying on Brazil defeating (and destroying) Portugal, while they did the same to North Korea. You have to be inspired by the North Korean goalkeeper R Myong Guk, who played on to the end of the game despite injuries to his hand and thigh.
This was the first clean game of the World Cup; referee Alberto UNDIANO, who previously had a terrible match with Germany and Serbia, had a change of form. By contrast, seven yellow cards were given out in the game between Brazil and Portugal, which was played poorly by both sides.
So for group G, my predictions come through, but I was glad that I chose to watch Ivory Coast/North Korea rather than Brazil/Portugal.
Interestingly, the Americans seem to be getting deep into this tournament. They're really passionate about their team this year. I think it's because of that 1-1 draw originally and Robert Green's mess-up. 11Points even did a live blog for the first time, following that USA-Algeria game that ended so spectacularly. I think now they understand why the rest of us love football. The sport has always had a minor follow there. The question is: will it increase?
Again, I think 11points puts it succinctly: the people might love it, but the TV networks won't because it doesn't allow for them to take time out in the middle of a half for commercial breaks. What can I say? TOUGH! ITV has managed for years. But at any rate, I think Americans will get behind their national team rather than the league teams. American teams don't often participate in international competitions, so it's fantastic to see the World Cup uniting the USA.
The second pair of games was group H's finale. I had correctly predicted Spain and Chile would go through. All Spain had to do was win to guarantee survival, or draw if the other game turned in Honduras's favour. With the dominance of South America, and the loss of several European teams, it was vital to stay in.
Honduras didn't have much of a chance, though. Losing today means they're the first team to go out of a World Cup without points or goals since Saudi Arabia and China in 2002. (Source: FIFA.com. Someone tell me where all this stupid info comes from!)
The first half went well, as Spain scored two goals, meaning Chile no longer have a goalless tournament. Worse was to come for the South Americans, as Chile gained four yellow cards – two to the same player, and two to players who will also miss out on the next match.
Spain went into the second half feeling like they had already won against 10-man Chile, but were soundly shaken by substitute Millar's goal. However, they can be comforted by the fact that the last player to score against Chile in a World Cup was Brazil's Ronaldo back in 1998 in the final 16, which Brazil won 4-1. At the end of the half, they found themselves kicking around the ball and maintaining the score, just relaxing and keeping things away from Chile.
Thanks to Spain's victory, they will now play European neighbours and rivals Portugal in the final 16. They are only the third team in World Cup history to win their group having lost their opening game – the other two are West Germany (1982) and Mexico (1994).
Chile have never won their group in the World Cup. In 1998 they had 0-3-0 and got through. The most they have managed is two wins – in 1930, 1962 and this year. Only three teams have lost the group stages despite winning two matches: Chile (1930), Yugoslavia (1950) and Algeria (1982) although in the first two cases only the group winners went through.
Goals per game: Mean – 2.1, Median – 2, Mode – 2, Range – 7
Cards per game: Mean – 4, Median – 4, Mode – 5, Range - 10
Tomorrow, Uruguay play South Korea and the USA play Ghana. My predictions are on Uruguay and USA to win. So far I've had 86% correct predictions (only Italy and Serbia have failed me so far) but don't use me to bet with! From tomorrow, I will be posting statistics before the games about previous clashes between the teams.
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